Bengals 2007 scouting report

Just aint' feeling it…

On one side, you can look at the 2006 Bengals and see a team that was 3 plays from finishing 11-5:

· Justin Smith was called for a personal foul (a call that EVERY analyst agreed was horrific) on a sack/forced fumble/recovery that would have iced the Tampa Bay game.
· Botched the snap on an extra point against Denver that would have sent the game into overtime, and the Bengals had all the momentum
· Missed a 40-yard field goal (with one of the most accurate kickers in the league, Shayne Graham) at the gun that would have won the season finale against Pittsburgh

On the other side, this is how the Bengals fared against their 3 toughest opponents:

· vs. New England – L, 38-13 – offense moved the ball in the first half but could not finish off drives and had to settle for field goals. Close game at the break. Then New England forced some turnovers and put the hammer down. The outcome was sealed early in the fourth quarter.
· vs. San Diego – L 49-41 – looked like Super Bowl champs in the first quarter and blazed to a 21-0 lead. Chargers scored 42 points in the second half in an embarrassing defensive meltdown.
· @. Indianapolis – L, 34-16 – see 'New England'

In big boy football, Cincy was 0-3 and was outscored 121-70 – the 3 teams averaged over 40 points. That's not sweet.

So we can suppose all we want, tweak the Bengals 2006 record and put them in the playoffs. They still were not winning a road game at Indianapolis or New England in January. Not a chance. So here we are.

I keep reading and hearing about the 'talented' Bengals and how they have the pieces to make a Super Bowl run. Hummph. Today, only 3 players could crack the starting lineup on the majority of NFL teams – Carson Palmer, TJ Houshmanzadeh and Chad Johnson. That's it. Levi could if he was healthy, but he's not, and Willie Anderson has officially become 'Old Man Willie'. Justin Smith MIGHT crack the 11 on a few teams. And when Justin Smith is the best guy you got on defense, you have a problem.

Offense

Palmer has to have a monster year if this team is going to make the playoffs. Like 4500 yds, 35 TDs, 68% completion percentage. CJ and Housh will have big years, though I am a little bored with their acts. CJ is an attention whore (we can smell our own) and TJ complains more than any player in the game. Not one game will go by this year without a temper tantrum sparked by a miscommunication with Palmer or him complaining to the refs that he was interfered with. It's to the point that I doubt he will EVER get a call. Nobody likes a whiner.

Rudi is solid but he is not a game changer – his longest carry last year went for 25 yards. This year is probably the apex for him, if it has not happened already. The offensive line is a hulking mass of men. Pass protection is high quality but the run blocking is average. You never see them fire off the ball and bury other linemen. They zone block, occupy their man and hope Rudi finds a crease. The truth is the Bengals have to pass to setup the run.

Despite two paragraphs of complaints, this is still a top-10 offense. And they will need to be for this team to win. As usual.

Defense

The Bengals had the 30th ranked defense last year. They added a rookie CB and a few castoff linebackers. Oh. Neat.

Same old story. The Bengals cannot stop a good running game for 4 quarters. They cannot get pressure on the quarterback unless they gamble and blitz. And worst of all, they cannot get a 3 and out when they need it. At its best, this defense keeps everything in front of them, lets the opposition accumulate yards between the 20s and settle for field goals, and forces (or trips into) a few turnovers.

I like the secondary. The young corners, Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall, could be great. Madieu Williams had a tough 2006 but should become a playmaker again. The problem is if the quarterback has 6 seconds to go through his options, it does not matter how good your back 4 is.

The defensive line is forgettable – the biggest failure of the Lewis regime. The linebackers are the wild card. Ahmad Brooks is a potential beast but he looked clueless at times in the preseason. Then they have Rashad Genty that signed a big contract and underrated Landon Johnson.

Special Teams

The Bengals don't have a punt or kick off returner they are happy with. Kicker Shayne Graham has a hip pointer. But they have a good punter!

Bottom Line

The Bengals have had some tough luck injuries and disgusting suspensions that have drained the talent pool and forced them to patch holes with secondhand talent. Their ability to reload with the draft has been poor.

Player Year Round Status
Frostee Rucker 2006 3 backup, suspended for game 1
David Pollack 2005 1 out for year, maybe forever
Odell Thurman 2005 2 suspended for 2007
Chirs Henry 2005 3 suspended for first 8 games of 2007
Chirs Perry 2004 1 injured, out at least 6 games
Keiwan Ratliff 2004 2 backup, barely made team
Kelley Washington 2003 3 gone

It's hard to stay competitive in the nasty AFC when you get no value from top draft picks. This is a different team with Pollack, Thurman, Henry and Perry at 100%. But they aren't.

Prediction

The schedule is tough. After the opener with the Ravens, the Bengals have to go to Seattle and get New England at home in two of their next three games. If the Bengals drop Monday night's game to Baltimore, a 1-3 start is possible, if not probable. I think the Ravens game is a must win.

And I don't think they win it. I close my eyes and see 7-9.

The fallout

Where do the Bengals go if they finish 7-9? Or 8-8? Or anything less than a playoff birth? Cincinnati fans find themselves 5 years into the Marvin Lewis plan with an average team going backwards. Time to look for the next hot coordinator.

football and gambling

With football launching it was appropriate to create a gambling account and hand over my credit card information to savvy mobsters that have found the internet and relocated to the Caribbean. God bless America. Or Antigua.

I don’t like betting college football, because the lines are so big. But my buddy and gambling advisor is unaffected by minus 18s and 19s so I decided to follow his picks for the weekend. My direction was encouraged by an opening night blowout – I took Mississippi State at +21 (cursed large numbers!) and they lost 41-0. Like plumbing and porn, it is sometimes better to leave things to the experts.

I went to BW3s because of the foul birth of the Big 10 Network forced the OSU Buckeye game onto an obscure cable channel that my picture box does not receive. I was surprised (though I should not have been) that the cable companies rolled over to this ridiculous channel that will carry a total of 100 hours of quality programming the entire year. At this rate, there will be an SEC West channel in five years. A million channels and not a thing to watch – almost makes you want to read.

The bar was perfect and I praised Allah that I was not in Columbus. Instead of a soccer riot, I was presented with a half-empty bar with wide walk lanes and clean tables with clear views to the screens. Heaven. I glided to my table and had instant service. I ordered a Coke and saw the look of despair. The waitress could see I would be occupying a table for 4 hours, was not drinking, had no friends and my bill would come to around $11. I eased her pain by adding a water to my tab.

The Buckeye game started and I watched with canned cheering. It's hard to get up for the early season blowouts. But not for the table next to me. They had a tray of yaeger shots delivered before 2pm. I would monitor them the rest of the way. At one point, one guy open hand slapped another. Nothing escalated. They were nasty to each other. They may have been going to a wedding later. One guy was wearing a generic OSU jersey with the name 'Ohio State' stenciled in the back that he got from Target. Once his alcohol level was just right, he turned his fury on a Michigan fan who was minding his own business with his two kids. He barked 'Hey dude, Michigan F**KING SUCKS!' I buried my head in shame.

By 1pm, I was no longer watching the OSU game. Michigan was having all kinds of problems with 1-AA Appalachian State. Now I am not one of those fools who says 'I have two favorite teams – OSU and whoever is playing Michigan.' Any Buckeye fan who wants Michigan to be 0-11 every year at the end of the season is daft. However, I could not resist cheering for little App. State. I would have preferred them slinging the David rock at USC, LSU or Oklahoma, but Michigan would have to do.

The game got good and I had no choice but to yelp encouragement for Appalachia. The whole while, I was monitoring the Miami game (giving 18 to Marshal), peaking at the OSU rout and texting my gambling guru who was painting his bathroom. Here are my text transcripts:

12:47PM - Bowie – UM 14 APP 14
12:54PM - guru – Go… App guys? No idea what their mascot is.
12:58PM - Bowie – Its an inbred child with 12 tows. Nickname 'dirty dozen'
1:04PM - guru – I like it, however, you have to appreciate the irony of you misspelling toes while calling someone else a hick
1:07PM - Bowie – you're a toe
1:10PM - Bowie – 21 – 14 dirty D
1:15PM - Bowie – UM fumbled the kickoff return
1:17PM - Bowie – Ground caused it. Overturned.
1:24PM - Bowie – UM fails to convert on 4th down. Reeks of desperation. Follows with personal foul. I am no longer watching the OSU game.
1:25PM - guru – (Giggles)
1:28PM - Bowie – DD DRIVING AT WILL. First and Goal.
1:34PM - Bowie – 28 14. Whole bar LOUDLY cheering for DD with mocking laughter
1:56PM - Bowie – table next to me just ordered 6 yaeger shots. Good times.
2:03PM - guru – Buckeye kicker is a 28-year old divorcee. No joke.
2:08PM - Bowie – some guy just got an open hand slap. DD at their 36.
2:11PM - guru – a slap at the bar? In the face? From a chick? Do tell.
2:13PM - Bowie – Guy on guy. Like the porn you watch. Did not escalate. After UM int cannot move the ball. Settle for 3. 28 20
2:16PM - guru – Don't concern yourself with my collection of porn. You're telling me a dude got slapped in the face and didn't fight? That's automatic throw down time.
2:23PM - Bowie – UM has no answer for DD QB. Dude just dropped WIDE OPEN touch. Settled for FG. 31-20.
2:28PM - Bowie – Mich bumbled kick and only got it out to the 10. Then they had to waste a timeout. Hart is out with an injury. Crumbling.
2:31PM - Bowie – Fumble. DD ball on 28.
2:34PM - Bowie – Stalled. Missed 46 yard field goal. That hurts.
2:37PM - Bowie -UM flinging errant deep balls. fear.
2:39PM - Bowie - 3 and out. 3 incompletes. None were close.
2:44PM - Bowie - DD driving. Fumbled. Keeping um in game.
2:45PM - Bowie - Blue has to work for every yard.
2:49PM - Bowie - 31 26. UM failed 2 pt conversion. End of 3rd. Huge drive coming up for APP.
2:59PM - Bowie - 3 and out. Punt. Personal Foul. Great field pos for um. The worm has turned.
3:02PM - Bowie - App pick. Almost goes house. Bar erupts. I am giddy.
3:05PM - Bowie - 3 and out. UM D decided to wake up. Punt. UM ball at own 25.
3:12PM - Bowie - Hart is heating up. Blue at midfield.
3:13PM - Bowie - 3rd and 14. huge.
3:21PM - Bowie - Punt. UM ball at midfield. APP starting to play scared.
3:24PM - Bowie - Hart just ripped a 55 yard highlight td run. 32 31 after failed 2 pt conv.
3:26PM - Bowie - Pick. Not sweet.
3:34PM - Bowie - UM missed FG. App ball at 45 after qb scramble. 90 seconds.
3:36PM - Bowie - Moving. At um 30.

At this point, a phone call was made after the App St. QB scrambled and threw a dart across his body that ended with a first and goal at the 5. After some terrible clock management and a knuckle ball field goal, the score was 34-32. The last text:

3:43 50 yd bomb to manningham. Ball on 20. Getting ready to kick. Unreal.

Game ends as everyone knows. Phone calls go out to everyone. Except one last text message, to my buddy who goes to Michigan grad school:

3:51PM - Bowie – oops.


So that beautiful chunk of life ended (My bill was $13, and Miami covered the spread, so I am up 17) and I scurried home to watch Notre Dame. ND is great gambling because they have hordes of fans who are crazy and bet, so they drive the lines down. Irish was giving 1.5 points to Gerogia Tech. Only scary thing is that NBC has mortgaged their college football wad into the Domers, so they NEED the Irish to be good. This leads to a few fishy calls that can drive the honest degenerate to distraction. Good thing Notre Dame is miserable. 33-3, Yellow Jackets. That's what we like to call a 'gambling layup'.

The glorious day ended with Cal (-7) covering against Tennessee. All told, the guru went 6-0. As Fast Eddie once said, 'Money won is twice as sweet as money earned'.