Bengals 2007 scouting report

Just aint' feeling it…

On one side, you can look at the 2006 Bengals and see a team that was 3 plays from finishing 11-5:

· Justin Smith was called for a personal foul (a call that EVERY analyst agreed was horrific) on a sack/forced fumble/recovery that would have iced the Tampa Bay game.
· Botched the snap on an extra point against Denver that would have sent the game into overtime, and the Bengals had all the momentum
· Missed a 40-yard field goal (with one of the most accurate kickers in the league, Shayne Graham) at the gun that would have won the season finale against Pittsburgh

On the other side, this is how the Bengals fared against their 3 toughest opponents:

· vs. New England – L, 38-13 – offense moved the ball in the first half but could not finish off drives and had to settle for field goals. Close game at the break. Then New England forced some turnovers and put the hammer down. The outcome was sealed early in the fourth quarter.
· vs. San Diego – L 49-41 – looked like Super Bowl champs in the first quarter and blazed to a 21-0 lead. Chargers scored 42 points in the second half in an embarrassing defensive meltdown.
· @. Indianapolis – L, 34-16 – see 'New England'

In big boy football, Cincy was 0-3 and was outscored 121-70 – the 3 teams averaged over 40 points. That's not sweet.

So we can suppose all we want, tweak the Bengals 2006 record and put them in the playoffs. They still were not winning a road game at Indianapolis or New England in January. Not a chance. So here we are.

I keep reading and hearing about the 'talented' Bengals and how they have the pieces to make a Super Bowl run. Hummph. Today, only 3 players could crack the starting lineup on the majority of NFL teams – Carson Palmer, TJ Houshmanzadeh and Chad Johnson. That's it. Levi could if he was healthy, but he's not, and Willie Anderson has officially become 'Old Man Willie'. Justin Smith MIGHT crack the 11 on a few teams. And when Justin Smith is the best guy you got on defense, you have a problem.

Offense

Palmer has to have a monster year if this team is going to make the playoffs. Like 4500 yds, 35 TDs, 68% completion percentage. CJ and Housh will have big years, though I am a little bored with their acts. CJ is an attention whore (we can smell our own) and TJ complains more than any player in the game. Not one game will go by this year without a temper tantrum sparked by a miscommunication with Palmer or him complaining to the refs that he was interfered with. It's to the point that I doubt he will EVER get a call. Nobody likes a whiner.

Rudi is solid but he is not a game changer – his longest carry last year went for 25 yards. This year is probably the apex for him, if it has not happened already. The offensive line is a hulking mass of men. Pass protection is high quality but the run blocking is average. You never see them fire off the ball and bury other linemen. They zone block, occupy their man and hope Rudi finds a crease. The truth is the Bengals have to pass to setup the run.

Despite two paragraphs of complaints, this is still a top-10 offense. And they will need to be for this team to win. As usual.

Defense

The Bengals had the 30th ranked defense last year. They added a rookie CB and a few castoff linebackers. Oh. Neat.

Same old story. The Bengals cannot stop a good running game for 4 quarters. They cannot get pressure on the quarterback unless they gamble and blitz. And worst of all, they cannot get a 3 and out when they need it. At its best, this defense keeps everything in front of them, lets the opposition accumulate yards between the 20s and settle for field goals, and forces (or trips into) a few turnovers.

I like the secondary. The young corners, Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall, could be great. Madieu Williams had a tough 2006 but should become a playmaker again. The problem is if the quarterback has 6 seconds to go through his options, it does not matter how good your back 4 is.

The defensive line is forgettable – the biggest failure of the Lewis regime. The linebackers are the wild card. Ahmad Brooks is a potential beast but he looked clueless at times in the preseason. Then they have Rashad Genty that signed a big contract and underrated Landon Johnson.

Special Teams

The Bengals don't have a punt or kick off returner they are happy with. Kicker Shayne Graham has a hip pointer. But they have a good punter!

Bottom Line

The Bengals have had some tough luck injuries and disgusting suspensions that have drained the talent pool and forced them to patch holes with secondhand talent. Their ability to reload with the draft has been poor.

Player Year Round Status
Frostee Rucker 2006 3 backup, suspended for game 1
David Pollack 2005 1 out for year, maybe forever
Odell Thurman 2005 2 suspended for 2007
Chirs Henry 2005 3 suspended for first 8 games of 2007
Chirs Perry 2004 1 injured, out at least 6 games
Keiwan Ratliff 2004 2 backup, barely made team
Kelley Washington 2003 3 gone

It's hard to stay competitive in the nasty AFC when you get no value from top draft picks. This is a different team with Pollack, Thurman, Henry and Perry at 100%. But they aren't.

Prediction

The schedule is tough. After the opener with the Ravens, the Bengals have to go to Seattle and get New England at home in two of their next three games. If the Bengals drop Monday night's game to Baltimore, a 1-3 start is possible, if not probable. I think the Ravens game is a must win.

And I don't think they win it. I close my eyes and see 7-9.

The fallout

Where do the Bengals go if they finish 7-9? Or 8-8? Or anything less than a playoff birth? Cincinnati fans find themselves 5 years into the Marvin Lewis plan with an average team going backwards. Time to look for the next hot coordinator.