Bowie Reds Midseason Report
Beware: gigantic post... I tried to sprinkle in some pictures to ease the pain of endless text. Anyway, this one is a collossus.
This is coming a bit late. The Kearns/Lopez (can we call this ‘Kearpez’ for short?) trade sent me reeling for days. I am exhausted thinking about that trade. And it’s not worth the effort anyway because we won’t know if it was the right thing to do for some time. If the Reds make the playoffs and Bray and Majewski help them get there, Krivsky comes out looking pretty good. Regardless, I do not think the Reds should have made the trade. That is my final stance. Whatever. Here we go…
Starting Pitching
Aaron ‘Harangutan’ Harang -- 10-6, 3.72 ERA, 135.1 IP, 129 SO, 4 CG
Big, lumbering workhorse who can hit 94 MPH with his fastball. Nasty slider. When he is at his best, he hammers the inside part of the plate and breaks a lot of bats. He leads the National League with 4 complete games, has logged 135.1 innings and is 2nd in the NL with 129 strike outs. He’s a beast. And he looks like a beast with his 260 pounds of carriage and pitiful facial hair. He’s even managed to slap a few key singles, despite having the swing of a 12-year old girl.
Another 9 tough innings for the Harangatan
Bronson Arroyo -- 9-6, 2.96 ERA, 137.0 IP, 103 SO, 2 CG
The MVP of the first half of the season. If Krivsky does not make the move to acquire Arroyo, the Reds are not in the postseason discussion. A true joy to watch pitch – he works fast, throws from a variety of arm angles and deploys a graceful, sweeping leg kick in his pitching motion that would make the Rockettes jealous. His strength lies in his pitch location and his ability to change speeds to keep hitters off-balance. He coaxes a lot of weak pop flies. With any kind of run support, he has 12 wins. Arroyo fields his position well, can lay down a bunt and has even provided some clutch hits (6 RBI). And guess what, he also plays guitar and sings! And I swear, if I hear his acoustic rendition of ‘Wonderwall’ by Oasis one more time I am going to impale myself on a letter opener. Arroyo lives in Mt. Adams, and the word is that when he hits the bars on the weekends, he claims one woman early, takes her back to his lair and then returns for seconds before last call. So there’s that.
Renaissance Man
Elizardo ‘The Reptile’ Ramirez – 3-6, 4.21 ERA, 84.1 IP, 55 SO
The best 3-6 pitcher in all of baseball. 9 of Ramirez’s 15 starts have been quality (3 or fewer runs in at least 6 innings). At 23 years old, Ramirez already handles himself like a polished veteran. His teammates have called him the most professional player on the roster because he is very quiet and just goes about his business. Then again, he can barely speak a lick of English so what do you expect. With the failure of Dave Williams and the spotty health of Claussen/Milton, Ramirez has been vital to the team’s success. He’s listed at 6’ 0”, 180 lbs but he is smaller than that. While not an overpowering pitcher, he spots his pitches well and challenges hitters. Solid 4/5 starter.
Eric ‘Uncle Milty’ Milton – 6-6, 5.47 ERA, 100.1 IP, 61 SO, 19HR
Arguably the most overpaid player in all of baseball. And that would not be so bad, if he was on the Yankees. But when a player is making $9.8M on a team with a $60M (15% of team salary) payroll and said player is a below-average pitcher; that is disgusting. Milton is a terrible fit for the Reds and probably Dan O’Brien’s worst signing of his tenure. He’s a fly ball pitcher in a hitter’s park which translates into souvenirs for fans in the outfield bleachers. On a positive note, Milton is the model of consistency – you can set your watch to his starts. He can get through 5 innings of 2-run ball (those runs coming off of solo HRs) and look decent. In the 6th, he absolutely falls apart. The hitters have seen him a couple times, he loses control and velocity, and it becomes batting practice. At this point in the game, he is only getting outs if guys hit the ball at people.
Brandon Claussen – 3-8, 6.19 ERA, 77IP, 57 SO
Claussen’s numbers are terrible. He’s good for one solid start every 3 outings. That’s about it. Average stuff. Average velocity. Average man. Not the stud the Reds thought they were getting from the Yankees when they traded Aaron Boone. He’s on the DL right now and I don’t think anybody cares.
Joe Mays – 0-5, 8.70 ERA, 50.2 IP, 25 SO
Mays had one great season with Minnesota in 2001 when he won 17 games and posted a 3.16 ERA. He hasn’t exactly been able to capture the magic since then. He was despicable for the Royals this season going 0-4 with a 10.27 ERA before being released and picked up by the Reds. You really have to suck to be a pitcher and released by the worst team in baseball. Krivsky, who was in Minnesota during Mays’ great season, took a chance that a change of scenery would be the cure. He was also going off the theory that ‘well, he is terrible in the AL but the NL hitters have not seen him so maybe he can come over here and win a couple games before they figure him out’. Not so much.
Grade: B
Despite only having 3 dependable starters, the Reds’ starting pitching has been the most consistent component of the team and the principal reason why they are in the hunt for a playoff birth. Mays should never start again. The Reds need a consistent 4th starter – then Ramirez and Claussen can fight over the 5th spot. Milton is only the 3rd starter because of his salary. Paul Wilson is on the mend and hoping to get back with the club but that is a pipe dream. He’s done. Homer Bailey is destroying batters in AA Chatanooga (After five starts, Bailey is 4-0, with a 0.88 ERA, and carries over a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (31:6)) but Krivsky has vowed not to bring Bailey up to pitch this year.
Relief pitching
Todd ‘Hot’ Coffey – 6-4, 3.24 ERA, 50.0 IP, 34 SO, 7 saves
The first time I saw this giant red head sprint out to the mound from the bullpen I was saddened because I knew I would never again witness anything so fantastic for the rest of my life. Coffey was an absolute stud for the first two months of the season, posting a sub 1.0 ERA. He can hit mid-90s with his fastball and has a nice slider. His success got the fans a little greedy. Reds country expected perfection every outing. Coffey was moved to the closer role and his performance suffered. He became very hittable. Coffey has been moved back to a setup role where he was brilliant in April and May.
‘Every day’ Eddie Guardado – 1-3, 4.55 ERA, 29.2 IP, 27 SO, 10 saves
Gone are his glory days in Minnesota, where he racked up 86 saves in the 2002-03 seasons. Still, he closed down 36 games for Seattle last year and brings a winning, veteran presence to the bullpen. He has been handed the closer role and is 5 for 5 in his opportunities with the Reds. He’s a fireplug and an excitable addition to the clubhouse. The Reds gave up pitcher Travis Chick (awful name) to get him.
David ‘Stormy’ Weathers – 3-3, 4.93, 45.2 IP, 25 SO, 9 saves (9 for 15), 10HR
The closer by default early in the season, Weathers was an impressive 8 for 9 in save opportunities in April. However, he was shaky and was eventually replaced by Coffey. At 37 years old, Weathers best days are behind him and he does not have many pitches left in his arm. He’ll need rest between outings to be effective down the stretch. He gives up a lot of HRs. He also has no chin, so his flabby neck stretches straight from the top of his chest to his bottom lip.
Gary Majewski – 4-3, 4.07 ERA, 59.2 IP, 40 SO
Key component (or at least highest rated player) in the trade with the Nationals. Hard throwing right hander who challenges hitters. He is under pressure to succeed, since he represents the return for Kearpez. So far, he has not delivered. He has posted a 10+ ERA in his 5 appearances. The Reds desperately need him to pitch at a high level. If he bombs, the trade looks very bad. Majewski looks like a pirate. A fruity pirate.
ARRRR... Shiver me timbers!!!
Bill Bray – 2-1, 3.54 ERA, 25.2 IP, 20 SO
The left-handed portion of the Nationals trade. Young, tall, power reliever. He’s been fantastic in his 4 appearances for the Reds.
Kent Merker – 1-1, 4.50 ERA, 26.0, 15 SO
Another old fart in the final days of his pitching career. People like to call guys like this a ‘crafty veteran’, which is short for ‘old man that can barely hit 90 on the radar and does not have explosive stuff so he has to throw a bunch of junk at hitters and pray that they make a mistake and don’t hit the ball into the stands’. He will take the role as left handed specialist the rest of the season. Merker just got put on the DL for elbow problems – Shackleford has taken his place.
Jason Standridge – 1-1, 4.15 ERA, 13.0 IP, 13 SO
Big, hard-throwing right hander who LOOKS like a stud pitcher. His actual pitching has been less than desired. Admittedly, he seems to get tormented with bloop singles and shaky defense. I think he can be a good pitcher. His last 4 outings have been stellar.
The rest – Matt Belilse (went on DL, rehabbing in AAA), Brian Shackleford (cleared of sexual assault charges, just called up to replace Merker)
Grade: C-
The much maligned bullpen got a big boost with the addition of Guardado, Bray and Majewski. The hope is this will take the strain off of Coffey and Weathers having to pitch shutout baseball game in and game out. If they return to their April/May form and Bray/Majewski pitch like the guys the Reds organization NEEDS them to be, then the pen could be the strength of the team.
Infield
Scott Hatteberg, 1B -- .317 AVG, 9HR, 22 2B, 32 RBI, .413 OBP
The most consistent hitter in the Reds lineup. Hatteberg has been good in the clutch and almost always hits the ball hard. He’s been absolutely raking the last couple months. He makes the pitcher work every at bat, often working deep counts. His fielding is spot on. Not only do I not recall him making an error, he has valiantly contained the random projectiles fired in his direction (sort of) by Encarnacion and Lopez all year long. Hatteberg has made Sean Casey a memory, putting up better numbers for a fraction of the cost. (2006 salaries - Hatteberg – 750K, Casey – 8.5M) Without Hatteberg’s consistent play, the Reds would have had to put Dunn at first. I shudder imagining Dunn scooping balls at first.
Brandon Phillips, 2B -- .292 AVG, 8 HR, 18 SB, 46 R, 49 RBI
Nobody hits more line drives on the Reds than Brandon Phillips. He sprays the ball to all fields and is just scratching the surface of his potential at the plate. Phillips is an aggressive hitter with speed (18 for 20 on steal attempts) to pester and burn defenses. A great and cheap pickup by Krivsky, Phillips took the starting job from Tony Womack and ran him out of Cincinnati. Phillips is the best athlete on the team and has range on the right side of the infield that reminds me of Pokey Reese. Strong arm. He is the Reds present and future at second though they may move him to shortstop in 2007.
Royce Clayton , SS-- .274 AVG, 23 2B, 10 SB
Veteran shortstop who came over in the Kearpez trade. The word is that he is flawless in the field and will shore up the left side of the infield. Still has some speed. Slap hitter with no power. He’s had some keys hits for the Reds since the trade and has postseason experience.
Edwin ‘EE-5’ Encarnacion, 3B -- .293, 7HR, 21 2B, 41 RBI, .386 OBP
Could easily be on his way to 100 RBI this season if it wasn’t for his injury and the fact that he likes to throw the ball into the stands instead of into the first basemen’s glove. At 23 years old, EE is already a professional hitter. He is patient at the plate and is a line drive machine. The Reds midseason offensive swoon started when EE-5 went on the DL. They are a different team when he is in the lineup. However, Narron has shown that he will no longer tolerate spotty play in the field – especially since he has quality options with Aurilia and Freel. Encarnacion has shown that he can make the great play, but he has to consistently make the routine if he wants to play every day.
I think Edwin E. looks like Old Dirty Bastard.
Juan Castro, infielder -- .250 AVG, 3HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB
Manos del Oro. That’s ‘hands of gold’ to you. Castro is a delight to watch in the infield. He is flawless. He exerts only the necessary effort and makes fielding look easy. He turns the quickest double play in the majors. Castro is the epitome of a defensive specialist. I think he is a better hitter than people give him credit for. He’ll give the team good ABs in the clutch.
Rich Aurilia, infielder -- .279 AVG, 12 HR, 17 2B, 37 RBI
Another invaluable component of the Reds’ success. If the Reds were down to their last AB of the season, I would want Aurilia at the plate. He’s a pro. He’s a tough out and can jolt the ball to all fields. He can play every infield position (the Reds best fielding first and third basemen) and has delivered in pinch -hit appearances. Maybe the best pickup from the Dan O’Brien era.
David Ross, C -- .311 AVG, 12 HR, 31 RBI, .384 OBP
Another jewel singing by Krivsky and co. Ross was a perennial soft-hitting (career .238 AVG) catcher who made the big leagues because of his defensive skills. Now (before he went on the DL) he is swinging the bat like Johnny Bench. His defense has not blown me away (he blew two plays at the plate early in the season), but his offense has made believers. Once he returns from injury, the starting catcher’s job is his to lose.
Javier Valentin -- .229 AVG, 2 HR, 16 RBI
The Reds best pinch hitter, Valentin has 8 pinch hits on the year including 2 game winnings hits and a 3-run bomb that sent a game against Atlanta into extra innings (the Reds ended up losing). He’s a switch-hitter, and is a much better hitter than his .229 average. Valentin’s first language is Spanish, so he is an asset when Ramirez takes the mound. A perfect backup catcher.
Jason ‘La Poo’ LaRue -- .206 AVG, 5HR, 17 RBI
A French, hillbilly catcher. Those words should never be in the same sentence together. Ross’ emergence has made LaRue the most expendable Red. Reds coaches will tell you that he calls a good game behind the plate but that’s just because they have nothing else nice to say. He’s getting ABs right now with Ross on the DL and has raised his average above the Medoza line. Still, as a rule, he’s an easy out. And a few weeks ago he whiffed on a suicide bunt attempt (the pitch was right down the middle) – a disgraceful display of bat control that I will never forgive as long as I live. The Reds would love to deal him but nobody wants a weak-hitting catcher that makes $3.9M a year. LaRue just shaved off a ridiculous ‘Fu Manchu’ mustache that I can’t even talk about and he calls himself ‘Cowboy’.
LaRue likes tractors because he is a country boy. And they can survive.
Grade: B-
Ross and Phillips were considerations for this year’s all star team. Hatteberg and Encarnacion have provided consistent offense. The fielding improved with the acquisition of Clayton. The Reds also have reliable backups (that could start on other teams) in Aurilia, Castro, Valentin and Freel. And though generally perceived as a joke, the Reds also have the deepest catching rotation in the league.
Outfield
Ken Griffey Jr., CF -- .240 AVG, 19 HR, 53 RBI
The Reds are a powerful team when Griffey is at his best. He can carry the team for stretches. He has come through in clutch situations. Unfortunately, his flashes of brilliance are becoming less often and not as bright. He’s simply not that beast (like Pujols or Ortiz or even Carlos Lee) in the middle of the lineup that opposing pitchers fear. His bat cannot get through the zone like it used to. He has to guess now. When he guesses right, he can still unleash and drive a ball to far away places. But when he guesses wrong, he can get blown away by a sub-90 fastball and made to look foolish by a slider in the dirt. It’s actually a little sad. He’s been awful in July, batting .188 – lowering is average to .240 and his OBP to under .300. Griffey has been relatively healthy, appearing in almost 70% of the Reds games. His defense has been admirable.
Adam ‘The Donkey’ Dunn, LF -- .246 AVG, 30 HR, 66 RBI, 67 R, 73 BB, .378 OBP, .550 SLG, 113 SO
I have expelled so much venom towards Dunn that I don’t think I have any left. More than anything, my problem has been this (and this is a quote from my dad): his unwillingness to adjust his swing based on the game situation and/or defensive alignment presented. To me, that is the mark of a selfish player. Whatever. The fact is that Dunn, again, is going to hit over 40 HRs, drive in 100 RBI and score 100 runs. He’ll also strike out 175 times. His statistics are big and strange. But I must admit, hit hitting has been great the last few weeks – he’s swinging earlier in the count, slapping singles and delivering with runners in scoring position (RISP). His average even hit .250 last week. Beyond his play, the following two things have raised my opinion of Dunn:
1. He is one of the premier power hitters in the league yet the Reds (because of his struggles with RISP and propensity to draw walks) moved him to 2nd in the batting order. Dunn did not complain and has actually embraced his new location.
2. After the Kearns trade (Dunn’s close buddy since their days in the minor leagues), Dunn did not bitch or curse the Reds.
Ryan Freel, RF – utility player -- .303 AVG, 7HR, 20 RBI, 21 SB, 45R, .390 OBP
The little Red that could. Every true Reds’ fan favorite player. He’s small, he’s feisty, he’s dirty, he’s fast. He’s 180 lbs of dynamite in cleats. Freel is the definition of a utility player, seeing time at every position this year save pitcher, catcher and first base (though he would play those too if you dared him). He’s the one player I hate to see out of the lineup. However, history has proven that Freel is not an every day player (the little fella plum tuckers out). He is better served as a 4-5 start-a-week guy with pinch running/defensive appearances sprinkled in between. He has developed into a solid hitter to all fields and is patient at the plate (sometimes too patient – he has 52 strike outs this year, a majority of those looking). When he gets on base, everyone knows something is going to happen – good or bad. If Freel has not played in a couple days, he is like a caged lion. He gets so anxious to make an immediate impact that he will try to take the extra base when it is not there or get picked off. That’s the trade off with Freel. Bottom line is he is a player and the Reds are happy to have him. He is everything good about baseball.
Chris Denorfia, LF -- .267 AVG, 0HR, 3 RBI
He was tearing it up in Louisville (he made the AAA All-Star team) which made the Kearpez deal a little easier to rubber stamp for the Reds. I get the feeling he is one of those guys that are great in the Minors but cannot hit Major League pitching. He looks overmatched. Still, he is fast so if he can slap some singles around and get on base he could be a nice asset.
Grade: C
The Reds have a third of their team salary tied up in the outfield. That means this group should be carrying the team. They are not. But they could, if Griffey gets hot and Dunn/Freel maintain their July production.
Offense Grade: B
The Reds are top-5 in most offensive categories in the National League. They lead the league in HRs and rely heavily on the long ball to score runs. As the season wears on, the Reds will have to find other ways to score for the loss of Kearpez reduced their power numbers considerably. In the games the Reds lose, they struggle getting runners in from second and third with less than two outs. They will have to be more efficient if they are going to make the playoffs.
Defense Grade: C
The Reds are not so good that they can afford to give teams extra outs. Most teams aren’t. But the Reds appear to be sharper of late and have a deep bench so they always have defensive substitution options late in games.
October baseball?
I don’t know. I feel like the Cardinals gave everyone a shot at taking the NL Central and no one could string some wins together and take advantage. Oh well. They’re gone. So that leaves the Wild Card. What scares me is that the Reds have already made all the big moves they have the capacity to make. The guys on the roster right now will have to win it on their own. Any other deal will just be window dressing. The Giants, Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks have yet to make any moves. And Houston scares me. The 3-game series starting Tuesday in Texas (Harang vs. Clemens) is HUGE.
The Reds have to get another starting pitcher for the 5th spot and I don’t know where they are going to get it from. Anybody decent is going to be devoured. Claussen would be the easiest solution, but he has really struggled. Wilson would be a miracle. There are a couple guys in AAA (Justin Germano is the best) but they are average talents.
Meanwhile, the Reds have to hope and pray that their 23-year old fourth starter (Ramirez) maintains his current level of performance – and there is no track record to prove that he can. Also, they must get REASONABLE outings from Milton.
In the end, if I had $5 to my name and I had to bet it on the Reds postseason chances, I would bet against them.
Top 6 Cincinnati Reds Salaries (this is a little gross):
PLAYER SALARY (US$)
1. Eric Milton 9,833,333
2. Ken Griffey Jr. 9,044,182
3. Adam Dunn 7,500,000
4. Eddie Guardado 6,250,000
5. Jason LaRue 3,900,000
6. Paul Wilson 3,750,000
posted by Mark Damon Bower @ 9:10 AM
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