2010 Reds Eulogy

I had some requests (there was one) for my annual Reds preview. And you just can’t disappoint your fan base (again, one). But instead of writing a Reds 2010 preview 13 games into the season, I will stay ahead of the curve and write their 2010 eulogy. Because this season is over.

I heard Marty Brenneman before the season gush that he was more excited about this Reds club than any one he has announced for in years. After I combusted from every orifice in excitement and wrecked my car into a taco stand, I had time to think about the Reds lineup while waiting for the authorities. The left side of the infield starts two old men (3B, Rolen – 35 and ss, Cabrera – 35) and the right side boasts a prima donna (Phillips) and a head case (Votto). The catcher is a semi-old man (Hernandez – 33) that has averaged only 106 starts in the last 3 years. The outfield boasts third year “phenom” RF Jay Bruce who batted .220 last year (.159 so far this year) and the other two spots have been platoons with career backups (Gomes, Nix, Dickerson) and a not-yet-ready Drew Stubbs. Not exactly the Big Red Machine II.

But really, we don’t need to break down the Reds position by position. There are simple, recurring themes that always surface. The telltale moments that make the Reds fan mutter “same old Reds”.

I was listening to the Reds play St. Louis a couple weeks ago – the class of the NL Central. Johnny Cueto, a talented pitcher with a bright future (if Dusty Baker doesn’t saw his arm off), pitched a 1-2-3 inning. Great news, right? Let’s dig deeper. Cueto was facing the 8-9-1 batters in the Cardinals lineup. It took him 25 pitches to get through the frame. He had to throw 10 the PITCHER. Meanwhile, Cardinal ace Adam Wainwright only needed 10 pitches to blow through the meat of the Reds order (3-Votto, 4-Philips, 5-Rolen) on their turn.

That one inning can tell you everything you need to know about the Reds (and the Cardinals). The Reds starters are a bunch that are just bad enough. They pitch admirably in the tiny Reds ballpark and keep them in most games. But they are not electric. They don’t attack the strike zone. They nibble and limp their way through painful, 10-pitch ABs. Few Reds starters make it to the 6^th inning. So now you have your bullpen having to complete 4 innings a game. And while they are a solid and varied bunch, it’s too much to ask. The pen will be done by July. And so will the Reds.

That brings us to the offense. In that same inning, you have the Reds best hitters coming to the plate. They are a veteran group. They KNOW Cueto just labored through an inning and needs a rest. And they come up hacking at first pitches, swinging at balls in the dirt, and turning themselves into easy outs. A week later, the Reds faced notoriously wild Cubs closer Carlos Marmol down a run. Instead of forcing him to throw strikes, Cincy batters came up lunging at balls as he breezed to his first save. The most succinct way I could sum up the Reds offense is that they make it easy on the opposition.

And those are the 2010 Reds. Or the 2004 Reds. Or the 2008 Reds. Interchangeable parts for what will be a forgettable season in the lost decade that is 2000-2010. The Reds lack baseball IQ, clutch performers and overall talent. Same old story. On defense, they don’t have the pitchers that can challenge and complete 7 innings. On offense, they don’t work counts, they don’t attack the base paths, they don’t hit with runners in scoring position and they hit more pop-ups than any modern baseball team (unconfirmed).

The Reds have 5 wins this year. All 5 were comebacks, 4 of which were in their last AB. That’s fun and stuff, but not a good method for winning on a consistent basis. In each win, the Reds either had a sparkling pitching performance or hit multiple home runs with runners on base. The Reds continue to wait around for the 3-run bomb. And when it doesn’t come, they lose. And I am not asking that they manufacture every run with a single, steal, bunt and sacrifice. How about a string of hits? A couple singles and a double? Maybe a walk? Take a look at a Reds box score sometime. You will see zeroes strung together. Scoring droughts are the norm. Easy innings filled with strike outs and pop ups. The defense never sweats.

But the Reds do have some pop and young pitching. Maybe Edison Volquez comes back and gives them a boost. Maybe Homer Bailey turns into the pitcher we want him to be. Maybe Drew Stubbs starts getting on base and becomes a bona fide leadoff man. Either way you shake it up, the Reds will play in the mud with the other half good/half crappy NL Central teams (Chicago, Houston, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee) and hover around .500. Meanwhile, St. Louis will cruise along (the team the Reds want to be) and distance themselves by 2-3 more games a month.

You end up with a sub-80 win Reds team that will miss the playoffs for the 15^th straight year. Sounds familiar. When does football start?