2008 Cincinnati Reds Scouting Report

Front office

Forgive me while I gush, but what's not to like? Here are just a few of my favorite things that the Castellini-Krivsky regime have done:

- Signed a legitimate staff ace, Aaron Harang, to a long term contract
- Renegotiated a signed a competitive, long-term contract with a budding superstar, Brandon Phillips
- Acquired key pieces (and bargaining chips) like Hatteberg, Phillips and Hamilton for next to nothing
- Made a splash in free-agency to address a weakness (Cordero – bullpen)
- Hired Former St. Louis Cardinals general manager Walt Jocketty, who built a perennial contender, as a special adviser to Krivsky (one extra brain and a little pressure on Krivsky)

They devised a plan and they executed it. The brain trust said they would focus on building a pitching staff and revamping the farm system. They have done both. The Reds have used their limited assets (Josh Hamilton being the prized pig) to acquire an army of pitchers to compete for a roster spot. They held competitive races this spring to fill the bottom half of the rotation. They picked the strongest arms, not just settled on the best of the worst. The Reds also boast 5 of the best prospects in all of baseball – 3 of them starting pitchers. It's all happening.

The Reds have also served notice that this is no longer small market, small move Cincinnati. Cordero was the top free agent reliever and the Reds signed him to big money. That was for today, but they also made moves for tomorrow. The Reds made a big splash in the Dominican Republic, giving a $2 million signing bonus to 16-year-old phenom outfielder Juan Duran. That's a symbolic sign, sending a message to the Big Boys that the Reds are players in the market.

Now excuse me while I got make love to my Castellini blow-up doll.

The Manager

When Johnnie B. Baker Jr. was hired as the Reds manager in the off-season, a disgruntled friend left a simple voice mail: "Dusty f-ing Baker". I felt the same way. Not that my reasons were logical – I was annoyed when he surrounded himself in the dugout with his 7 little sons during the 2002 World Series, was further irritated by his omnipresent toothpick and wrist bands when he guided the Cubs and I thought he looked like an iguana. This "evidence" will not win me any arguments on the topic of his managerial competence.

These are the facts:
- .527 career winning percentage
- 3-time NL Manager of the year
- Finished first or second in respective division 9 out of 14 years
- Guided the 2002 San Francisco Giants to the World Series (lost in 7 games to the Angels)
- 4 outs away from taking the 2003 Cubs to their first World Series since 1945

These are the perceptions:
- Knows how to turn around a losing franchise (1992 SF Giants: 72 wins, 1993 SF Giants: 103 wins; 2002 Chi Cubs: 67 wins; 2003 Chi Cubs: 88 wins)
- Gets all of his players to exert maximum effort
- Favors veterans of youth
- Will overwork and ruin the careers of young pitchers (ex. Kerry Wood, Mark Pryor)

At this point, I like the move. The Reds have been hiring within the organization this entire decade (see: Bob Boone, Ray Night, Dave Miley, Jerry Narron, Pete Mackanin) and the result is 7 straight losing seasons. They needed to go in a different direction. And if he can get Griffey and Dunn to play hard every day, he can sleep in my bed. His ultimate success, and reputation, will be determined by how he handles the mix of veterans and future stars. All eyes will be watching. And he knows it.

Pitching rotation

1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Cueto
4. Fogg
5. Volquez

Batting order (opening day)

1. Patterson (L - CF)
2. Keppinger (R - SS)
3. Girffey Jr. (L - RF)
4. Phillips (R - 2B)
5. Dunn (L - LF)
6. Encarnacion (R – 3B)
7. Votto (L – 1B)
8. Ross (R – C)


Starting Pitching

The Reds have three young arms that could provide the foundation for championship seasons. And the least impressive is Homer Bailey. That's a good thing. Johnny Cueto and Eddison Volquez are the talk of spring (in and beyond the Reds camp) while Bailey is headed to Louisville. Harang is a bonafide ace whereas Arroyo looks to bounce back after a disappointing, though misleading, 15-loss season. Fogg is a cheap addition that could win 10 games. I like the combination of different tempos the Reds can run out in any given series (Harang: power pitcher, Arroyo: finesse, Cueto: power with finesse, Fogg: finesse, Volquez: power). If Cueto and Volquez can produce over a full Major League season (that's a monster "if"), the Reds will contend for the division title.

Aaron Harang (R) – (2007 – 16-6, 3.73 ERA, 231.2 IP, 218 K)
Harangutan finished 4th in the NL Cy Young voting and was the undisputed Reds MVP. The Reds were 24-10 in the games Harang started; 48-80 in the games he did not. He's a big sweaty beast (275 lbs) who pounds the strike zone and rarely lets an inning get out of hand. He has once facial expression: blank, empty stare. That works for pitchers and poker players.

Bronson Arroyo (L) – (2007 – 9-15, 4.23 ERA, 210.2 IP, 156 K)
He was the hard-luck pitcher of '07. After 9 starts, Arroyo had an ERA of 2.64 and his record was 2-4. In that 9th start, which I believe broke his will, he pitched a complete game and lost 3-2. That was on May 16. He would not win again until July 5. Arroyo is a pitcher that will rise to the occasion – but he needs an occasion to rise to. If the Reds are 10 games back in June and he is pitching in a half-empty ballpark with comatose crowds, he'll pack it in and work on another terrible cover album. If the Reds are in the hunt, he will pitch his ass off every time. And you know, I can't even knock him for that.

Johnny Cueto (R) – (2008 Spring Training – 0-0, 5.27 ERA, 13.2 IP, 12 K)
Major League scouts have been drooling over themselves in their praise for Cueto, some calling him the second coming of Pedro Martinez. Example: "Cueto has been putting on a show from day one, blowing mid-90s fastballs past good hitters, freezing them with his dive-bombing slider, throwing invisible changeups on any count and doing it all with a presence and command that makes it tough to believe he's still only 21." Fortunately, he doesn't understand a lick of English so this praise should not go to his head. Cueto has up and grabbed the #3 spot by the throat. He's got the coolest name on the roster and is the guy everyone is waiting to see.

Josh Fogg (R) – (2007 – 10-9, 4.94 ERA, 165.2 IP, 94 K)
This reminds me of the Dave Williams acquisition the Reds made a couple years ago. Don't remember Williams? There's a reason for that. Fogg's a guy who wins and loses 10 games a year and has a hard time convincing women that he is a professional athlete. He won game 7 for the Rockies in the 2007 NLCS. That looks nice on the resume. The Rocks offered him 3.5M to pitch this year. He wanted 5M. They told him to step. Now he pitches for the Reds for 1M. Savvy.

Eddison Volquez (R) – (2007 – 2-1, 4.50 ERA, 34.0 IP, 29 K)
This is the pitcher the Reds got in the Josh Hamilton deal; the same Josh Hamilton that was a fan favorite and who the Texas Rangers (his new team) are comparing to Mickey Mantle. But don't worry. To paraphrase Marty Brenneman: if Hamilton goes out and hits 50 home runs for the Rangers this year, the Reds will still not miss him and be very happy with the trade. That's good enough for me. He is among the spring leaders in Ks, and he racked those up facing the full lineups of the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies.

Bullpen

The Reds big move in free agency was acquiring closer Francisco Cordero. Analysts either loved the move or thought the Reds overpaid. There is truth on both sides. But the Reds had to make a bold move to solidify a group that blew 28 saves last season. And that does not include another pile a games they sucked away in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings. The theory is that Cordero's presence at the back shifts the other arms into their appropriate slots – Weathers gets the 8th, Burton gets the 7th.

At this point, the roster is still in flux. These guys have spots locked down.

Francisco Cordero (R) – (2007 – 0-4, 2.98 ERA, 44 Sv, 63.1 IP, 86 K)
He's the lock down, angry, bad breath stopper every team likes. 46M is a lot to pay a 32-year old closer. I hope he's worth it. He assumes all of the pressure and scrutiny that will be directed towards the bullpen.

David Weathers (R) – (2007 – 2-6, 3.59 ERA, 33 Sv, 77.2 IP, 48 K)
38 years old and his chin has still not grown in. The Reds saddled the crafty Weathers with carrying the load last year, and he did an admirable job. He led the Majors in multiple-inning saves. That's a lot to ask a middle-aged reliever with average stuff. Now he moves to the 8th, which was the inning of doom for the Reds in '07. He should do fine, assuming he doesn't break down.

Jared Burton (R) – (2007 – 4-2, 2.51 ERA, 43.0 IP, 36 K)
Burton was dynamite in the 2nd half of the '07 season, compiling a 4-1 record and 1.83 ERA. He has been less than spectacular this spring. He gets the ball in the seventh until further notice.

Todd Coffey (R) – (2007 – 2-1, 5.82 ERA, 51.0 IP, 43 K)
He's big, he's hairy, he's orange, he's hot coffey! Coffey was the poster boy/scapegoat for the bullpen's woes last year. And he was awful. But he has a good fastball and hard slider. He just has to flush out the junk between his ears. He has pitched 11 shutout innings this spring, if that does anything for you.

Matt Belilse (R) – (2007 – 8-9, 5.32 ERA, 177.2 IP, 125 K)
Lost the 5th starting spot to the Volquez. We'll see how he takes the demotion. He'll be the primary long reliever, and get some starts along the way. He'll toss a gem every once in a while and he has a good fastball/change up combo; he also loses his cool when the game doesn't go his way.

Jeremy Affeldt (L) – (2007 – 4-3, 3.51 ERA, 59.0 IP, 46 K)
Affeldt was promised a chance at the rotation and was given that chance. Not as such. But he is more valuable in the bullpen, as he proved last year with Colorado, and he better serves the Reds in that role. Besides, the Reds need more lefties in the pen.


Defense

The Reds do not boast a defense that is going to bail their pitchers out of games. They do just enough not to blow games. Most of the time. The infield is solid but not spectacular. Their strength is up the middle – David Ross throws out 41% of runners, Brandon Phillips is a superstar and should have won a gold glove in '07 and the Gonzalez/Keppinger tandem at short is good enough. The Reds feature the slowest corner outfielders in the Major Leagues in Griffey and Dunn. They don't exactly cut off doubles headed to the gap. Corey Patterson will start the season in center. Jay Bruce is the stud in waiting - the Reds gave him a shot in spring at landing the job in CF. He is better suited to play a corner position. I doubt there will be much sorrow in the Reds high offices when Griffey misses time with an injury this season – that will be their excuse to get Bruce in the lineup in a position he is better suited for.


Offense

Until proven otherwise, Reds offense still sings the same tune. This is from last year's scouting report: "…the Reds lineup boasts a nice combination of speed and power. It’s the in-between stuff that is lacking. And by ‘stuff’ I mean bunting, situational hitting, sacrifice flies, working the count, protecting with two strikes, base running… you know, baseball. This team can be maddening on offense. They waste leadoff doubles and abandon men in scoring position. And the horrible thing is that this is the same tune we have heard for years. Nothing has changed. Too many strike outs, not enough timely hitting." So here we are again. Adding Corey Patterson (struck out 168 times in 2004) seems like more of the same. Keppinger and Hatteberg give you the most professional at bats. I look forward to watching Bruce and Votto. And I do like the mix of right hand/left hand batters.

Infield

Scott Hatteberg (L – 1B) – (2007 - .310 BA, .394 OBP, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 27 2B, 50 R)
If the Reds were down to their last out with the bases loaded in the 7th game of the World Series, I would want Hatteberg at the plate. He's a true professional. Smart player, pure hitter, underrated fielder, good man in the clubhouse. He's also expendable, with the emergence of Joey Votto. He might be traded before seasons end, unless Votto wets himself.

Joey Votto (L – 1B) – (2007 – in 24 games - .321 BA, .360 OBP, 4 HR, 17 RBI)
The first basemen of the near and present future. At 24, he's part of the Reds army of young talent. He'll platoon with Hatteberg until he proves he can play every day. This would be fine, if they were not both left-handed. I have no idea how Baker is going to work them both in. He went 3 for 3 with a HR is his first game for the Reds last year. He could be a beast this year, if he gets a chance.

Brandon Phillips (R – 2B) – (2007 - .288 BA, .331 OBP, 30 HR, 32 SB, 94 RBI)
In 2007, Phillips became the first player in Reds franchise history to go 30/30 (hrs and steals). You should read that sentence again. Phillips is a superstar. He has power to all fields, can hit for average and he can run. He also has fantastic range at second and has the arm of a short stop (his original position). The only thing that could get in his way is an inflated sense of self and questionable plate discipline (109 Ks to only 33 BBs in '07)

Alex Gonzalez (R - SS) – (2007 - .272 BA, .325 OBP, 16 HR, 55 RBI, 75 K)
Gonzalez had a good year in '07, hitting 24 points above his career average – and still struck out 75 times. He missed over 50 games due to injuries and family matters. Scouts always talk about his great range at SS, but I don't recall seeing him do anything spectacular. But maybe that is because he makes the tough play look routine.

Jeff Keppinger (R – SS) – 2007 – in 67 games - .332 AVG, .400 OBP, 5 HR, 32 RBI, 16 2B)
All Keppinger has done, at every level, is hit. However, he does not do any one thing with greatness (power, speed, defense) so he always finds himself the odd man out. I want him to be the starting SS. End of discussion. The Reds need high average/on base guys to balance out the high risk/high reward lineup. But that job has been bestowed to the veteran Gonzalez. However, Gonzalez is starting the season on the DL. So if Kepp can come out on fire, Gonzo could be trade fodder.

Edwin Encarnacion (R – 3B) – (2007 - .289 AVG, .356 OBP, 16 HR, 76 RBI, 86 K)
I think we all forget that this guy is only 25 years old. I have heard mutterings that he is a "disappointment" and will never evolve into an every-day third basemen. Come on. He's been learning on the job and is on the verge. A lot of teams would like to have a problem like EE. I smell a breakout year – 25 HRs, 90 RBI. Write that down.


Outfield

Ken Griffey Jr. (RF – L) – (2007 - .277 AVG, .372 OBP, 30 HR, 93 RBI, 85 BB, 99 K)
This is Griffey's 20th season in the bigs. That's a pile. He will hit his 600th HR in May. He played in 144 games last year, his most since 2000. His bat has slowed down but his swing is still pretty. He doesn't embarrass himself in the outfield and knows his limitations. Dusty might even inspire him to hustle on the base paths this year, which would be novel. He's an old pro and a class act. But I won't miss him when he's gone.

Adam Dunn (LF – L) – (2007 - .264 AVG, .386 OBP, 40 HR, 106 RBI, 101 BB, 101 R, 165 K)
He's a statistical beast, for sure. He has hit exactly 40 HRs in 3 straight seasons and is a sure bet to hit triple digits in runs, walks and RBI. Of course, this is the time of year where you might hear some crazy talk like "Dunn's been hitting the ball to all fields and shortens his swing now with two strikes". Don't believe the hype. When the curtain goes up, the real Dunner will stand up. Big swings, big bombs, big whiffs and a perpetual look of apathy. Whatever. I'm over it. I don't mind him on this team but I am certain that he gets embarrassed by good pitching in a playoff series. Let's get there first.

Corey Patterson (CF – R) – (2007 - .269 AVG, .304 OBP, 8 HR, 45 RBI, 37 SB)
He was the next big thing in Chicago back in 2000. A perennial 30/30 All-star. It didn't work out. Now he gets a fresh start in Cincinnati and the opening day start. Buster Olney from ESPN calls this signing one of the steals of the off-season. His .300 OBP is terrible for a lead off hitter, and that is where he will be. Let's hope for new beginnings.

Norris Hopper (OF – R) – (2007 - .329 AVG, .371 OBP, 14 RBI, 14 SB, 51 R)
Hopper saw time at every outfield position last year and performed at each one. He gets on base, he scores runs and he makes things happen. He bunts for hits! I love that stuff. He's a speedy breath of fresh air from the Dunn/Griffey lazy river. His play has made Ryan Freel expendable. Freel could be traded by the break.


Catchers

David Ross (R) – (2007 - .203 AVG, .271 OBP, 17 HR, 39 RBI, 92 K)
This is the weakest position group in the Reds organization. Ross barely made it above the Mendoza line last year and his career numbers (.222 lifetime average) indicate that his ceiling is not much higher. On the occasions when his bat touches the ball, it goes out of the park. Enjoy those moments. He has a big arm and plays the position well – that is why he is on the team.

Javier Valentin (Switch) – (2007 - .276 AVG, .328 OBP, 2 HR, 34 RBI, 21 2B)
I love me some Valentin. He's the perfect platoon catcher for Ross because he can hit and he speaks Spanish so he can handle all the English-deficient pitchers. He's also the perfect pinch hitter (led the Reds with 10 pinch hits in 2007) because he switch hits, is fearless and he comes up hacking. He never gets cheated at the plate. I often wonder why he is not the every day catcher. His 11% mark at throwing out runners has something to do with that.


Projection

The Reds pitching staff is as talented, top to bottom, as the 1995 staff – the last time they won a postseason series. They have a deep enough team to sustain injuries. They have a manager desperate to prove himself. They have quality pieces that can be traded (Hatteberg, Freel, Votto, Bailey) mid-season for a starter that can put them over the top. On the other hand, two of their 5 starting pitchers are unproven rookies. They struggle to score runs when not hitting home runs and their defense is average.

The Reds have not had a winning season for 7 years. Regardless, I sit here every year and believe they can win the division. Old habits die hard.

89 – 73, 1st place in the Central Division. Get there.