Done with Dunn

During the 8th inning of last Tuesday's baseball match between Cincinnati and Milwaukee, with the game well in hand at 7-3 (since Todd Coffey was on the hill), Brandon Phillips came up to bat. This is the point in the game where you want your team to ring up 3 quick outs so you can get to the 9 th and end it. I turned to my buddy and said 'if I was him, I would just try to crank a home run as far as possible'. Which Phillips did try - he took a few big swings from his heels and popped out.

And then I realized; this is how Adam Dunn approaches EVERY SINGLE at bat. All he wants is swat home runs. That is it. Obviously, this is not groundbreaking news but up until recently, I did not perceive Dunn as a selfish player that puts his own stats before his team's success.

Dunn's statistics are fascinating, puzzling and misleading. Dunn is on pace for his 3 rd 40-HR season in a row with 100 RBI. He will walk another 100 times and score 100 runs. Those are excellent numbers in important categories. He also holds the Major League strike out record with 195 and is on pace to equal that this year. His career average is .247 which he is well below this year. And for a guy who averaged 43 home runs in 2004/2005, his average of 101.5 RBI in those two seasons was absurdly low.

Despite his power numbers, Dunn is the one of the worst situational hitters I have ever seen. As a power/fly ball hitter, he has only hit 11 sacrifice flies in his 6-year career. That is outlandish and a testament to how poor he is at getting in runners from 3rd base with less than two outs. He cannot drive in runs when the Reds need it, evidenced by his disgusting .174 average with runners in scoring position (RISP).

Dunn's weak RISP average has been well documented. What I would like to see are his numbers in 'critical' situations. I would consider 'critical' any time a player comes to the plate representing the tying run (or better) or if their team is leading by less than 2 runs. I would imagine the numbers are staggering.

Average pitchers can get Dunn out in any critical situation. If they NEED to get him out, they will pitch accordingly. When a team is trailing by 7 runs, the pitchers start grooving fast balls just to get the game over with. That's when Dunn makes his money. When the game is on the line, he is as close to an automatic out as an American League pitcher batting in the World Series.

The point is this: Dunn builds his numbers in meaningless situations. If the Reds are trailing 6-0, Dunn will launch a solo homer. If the Reds are up 6-0, he will hit a moon shot into the right field stands. Just this past Monday night, Dunn crushed a 3-run homer with the Reds leading 8-1. His contribution turned a rout into a comical rout. Thanks, Adam.

Dunn swings one way. And that swing is long. Too long. And it does not change regardless of how many people are on base or what the count is. He will only swing at pitches that he can knock out of the park and guesses what pitch he will receive before each delivery. If he does not get that exact pitch he will not swing – which is why he takes so many good strikes, right down the pipe. Most at bats invariably end with Dunn swinging at a low-and-away curve ball. And missing.

You probably missed it, but some statistical forecasting model projected what the top-10 all-time HR list would look like in 2020 (it was in Sports Illustrated a couple weeks ago). It took in account such things as current HR pace, position played, league, body type, home stadium, etc. It projected Dunn as the being 6th on the all-time list in 2020.

I guarantee Dunn saw that and his eyes got big. And that may or may not have been the decision point, but he has dedicated his career to the long ball.

And really, I can't blame him. If you hit home runs, you are going to make big money and you are going to be a celebrity. Hell, it almost makes him MORE of a celebrity that he is a tragedy in the field, does not run the bases well and bats .225. He's a one-act cartoon character.

Dunn is a Texas boy - he doesn't care if Cincinnati EVER wins another World Series. Why should he? He just wants to get his. And he is in the right ball park to do it.

And that is fine. I can't blame him for his decision. He's a young man who wants to make as much money as he can and maybe a little history with his specialized skill. Good for him. Just let him chase Palmerio and Sosa for his place on the top-10 list in another city. I would like to win some ball games.

Adam Dunn is dead to me

Reds down 6-3. Bases loaded. One out. Adam Dunn at the plate.

first pitch - takes for strike one

second pitch - grounds into inning-ending double play 3-6-1

I cannot watch Adam Dunn at the plate anymore. He takes too many good pitches right down the middle. Then he will swing at a low-and-away breaking ball that he could not hit with a canoe oar. His play in the outfield and at first base is tragic. He is a lumbering oaf. His swing is too long. He has 99 HRs since the beginning of the 2004 season with only 229 RBI. That is absurd. He is batting .179 with runners in scoring position. He is a terrible clutch hitter.

He walks a lot. So what? He is a power hitter and his job is to drive in runs. He is the king of hitting meaningless, solo home runs. Good pitchers can get him out every time. He has hit a total of 4 sacrifice flies since 2004 which is unfathomable. He cannot get in a man from third with less than 2 outs when the Reds really need it. He is a big, fat strike out in the middle of the lineup and I cannot take it anymore.

Best Secret in Town

Shhhhhhhhhhh….

With my finger to my lips, I make this noise in my car every time I hear a sports radio caller reprimand the people of Cincinnati for not supporting their first-place Cincinnati Reds.

Quiet you fool! Don’t spoil the best deal in town!

Unfortunately, my car stereo is a one-way transmission, so my feeble pleas bounce harmlessly off the dashboard. So now I will have to take my campaign to the streets.

One fifth of the baseball season is in the books and the Reds find themselves on top of the National League Central with a 23-12 record, 2nd best in all of baseball. The Reds are an exciting club, scoring the most runs and swatting the most long balls (by a margin of 13) in the National League. The Reds are fast this year, with Felipe Lopez leading the league in stolen bases (16) and two players in the top 5. The starting pitching is delivering quality and two relievers (Todd Coffey and David Weathers) have emerged as bona fide stoppers. The Reds even play defense. Just not well.

There are a lot of statistical categories in which the Reds look mighty fine. Except one. Attendance. The Reds are 24th in the league in attendance with an average 21,806 per game. Four of the teams below them in attendance are in last place in their respective divisions. A mere 15,771 were in Great American Ballpark Thursday to welcome Ken Griffey Jr. back from the disabled less. And far fewer actually stuck around to see the Reds unfathomable 11th inning 5-4 comeback victory that included a 3-run walk off bomb launched by Griffey himself.

But I am not complaining. Far from it. This is not a rally cry to get fans to come down to the Ohio River. In fact, I hope everything remains status quo. I am enjoying championship-level baseball at a bargain price in an extreme comfort. Never mess with a good thing.

Right now, I have the ability to watch a first place team, in person, for $7. SEVEN FREAKING DOLLARS. I park for $2 (in a lovely little garage that I would rather not divulge – let’s just say it is north of 5th) and buy the $5 outer view level seats. 700 cents buys be 3 hours of beautiful baseball. And I can pick my seat.

With only 20,000 people attending the games, fans are free to roam around the stadium and pick their own seats. It’s fantastic. Besides the Diamond (the 10-15 rows right behind home plate) and Club Seats, no chair is off limits. That is, if you can duck the occasional battle axe usher. I have sat in the Moon Deck, the bleachers, Terrace infield box, Mezzanine – everywhere. And I have NEVER spent more than $5 for a ticket. In fact, I like the upper level seats better. More perspective.

The games are comfortable. When I take in a game with a group of friends, we never have to cram in next to each other – elbow to elbow. Every one of us can sprawl out and lounge like we were in our living rooms. Not once have I had to wait in line in the bathroom and the beer vendors fight for my business. I walk freely through the concourse like it is 3AM at the airport. It still takes too long to buy concessions but that is a food service discussion for another time. I can’t imagine how those lines would be if the stadium was filled with 40,000 strong.

And there is a strange, cool camaraderie that has fostered between my fellow Reds rooters that have braved the wild streets of Southeastern Ohio to make it down to GABP. We know what is going on and we revel in the scrappy home town team that seems to be playing just for us.

Now I know, in the long run, if this team is going to consistently contend with the likes of St. Louis, Chicago and Houston that the attendance numbers must increase in order to justify an increase in payroll. I know that. But at this moment, I am blissfully happy and could care less.

So stay home Reds fans. Do whatever it is you do when you are not going to games. And those of you that have been down on the river to watch the boys under the lights or Ohio blue skies - enjoy it. There are rare moments when a group of fans can watch their team play at the highest level (in any sport) for next to nothing. This is a gift.

And don’t tell anybody. Shhhhhhhhhhhh….