Done with Dunn

During the 8th inning of last Tuesday's baseball match between Cincinnati and Milwaukee, with the game well in hand at 7-3 (since Todd Coffey was on the hill), Brandon Phillips came up to bat. This is the point in the game where you want your team to ring up 3 quick outs so you can get to the 9 th and end it. I turned to my buddy and said 'if I was him, I would just try to crank a home run as far as possible'. Which Phillips did try - he took a few big swings from his heels and popped out.

And then I realized; this is how Adam Dunn approaches EVERY SINGLE at bat. All he wants is swat home runs. That is it. Obviously, this is not groundbreaking news but up until recently, I did not perceive Dunn as a selfish player that puts his own stats before his team's success.

Dunn's statistics are fascinating, puzzling and misleading. Dunn is on pace for his 3 rd 40-HR season in a row with 100 RBI. He will walk another 100 times and score 100 runs. Those are excellent numbers in important categories. He also holds the Major League strike out record with 195 and is on pace to equal that this year. His career average is .247 which he is well below this year. And for a guy who averaged 43 home runs in 2004/2005, his average of 101.5 RBI in those two seasons was absurdly low.

Despite his power numbers, Dunn is the one of the worst situational hitters I have ever seen. As a power/fly ball hitter, he has only hit 11 sacrifice flies in his 6-year career. That is outlandish and a testament to how poor he is at getting in runners from 3rd base with less than two outs. He cannot drive in runs when the Reds need it, evidenced by his disgusting .174 average with runners in scoring position (RISP).

Dunn's weak RISP average has been well documented. What I would like to see are his numbers in 'critical' situations. I would consider 'critical' any time a player comes to the plate representing the tying run (or better) or if their team is leading by less than 2 runs. I would imagine the numbers are staggering.

Average pitchers can get Dunn out in any critical situation. If they NEED to get him out, they will pitch accordingly. When a team is trailing by 7 runs, the pitchers start grooving fast balls just to get the game over with. That's when Dunn makes his money. When the game is on the line, he is as close to an automatic out as an American League pitcher batting in the World Series.

The point is this: Dunn builds his numbers in meaningless situations. If the Reds are trailing 6-0, Dunn will launch a solo homer. If the Reds are up 6-0, he will hit a moon shot into the right field stands. Just this past Monday night, Dunn crushed a 3-run homer with the Reds leading 8-1. His contribution turned a rout into a comical rout. Thanks, Adam.

Dunn swings one way. And that swing is long. Too long. And it does not change regardless of how many people are on base or what the count is. He will only swing at pitches that he can knock out of the park and guesses what pitch he will receive before each delivery. If he does not get that exact pitch he will not swing – which is why he takes so many good strikes, right down the pipe. Most at bats invariably end with Dunn swinging at a low-and-away curve ball. And missing.

You probably missed it, but some statistical forecasting model projected what the top-10 all-time HR list would look like in 2020 (it was in Sports Illustrated a couple weeks ago). It took in account such things as current HR pace, position played, league, body type, home stadium, etc. It projected Dunn as the being 6th on the all-time list in 2020.

I guarantee Dunn saw that and his eyes got big. And that may or may not have been the decision point, but he has dedicated his career to the long ball.

And really, I can't blame him. If you hit home runs, you are going to make big money and you are going to be a celebrity. Hell, it almost makes him MORE of a celebrity that he is a tragedy in the field, does not run the bases well and bats .225. He's a one-act cartoon character.

Dunn is a Texas boy - he doesn't care if Cincinnati EVER wins another World Series. Why should he? He just wants to get his. And he is in the right ball park to do it.

And that is fine. I can't blame him for his decision. He's a young man who wants to make as much money as he can and maybe a little history with his specialized skill. Good for him. Just let him chase Palmerio and Sosa for his place on the top-10 list in another city. I would like to win some ball games.