2011 Reds Report

Just like you should never go to the grocery hungry, it’s not healthy to prognosticate a Reds season after a 9-5 start.  But I would like to think we have matured to big-boy baseball.  The Reds are going to have winning weeks and they are going to have losing weeks.  But they will have more of the former.  And we need to strap it on and get ready for the grind. 

The months of summer are going to be a battle but it feels like, for the first time, all signs point to October.  Not that the Reds deserve, or have some destiny.  It just seems like they belong there.  And we will belong there - this time.  And we all will be ready.  So let’s talk about the path.

Position Players (with 2010 stats)

Joey Votto (.324, 37 hr, 113 rbi, 91 bb, 16sb, .424 obp, .600 slg, 1.024 ops) Remember when you collected baseball cards and you would look at somebody like Don Mattingly and drool at his awesome statistics and wonder why the Reds couldn’t have guys like that?  Well, here you go.  Complete and total beast.  And besides the hitting, he gives you perfect defense and intelligent base running.  If we were picking nits, you could site durability and craziness as concerns but the guy has averaged 146 games the past 3 years. 

Brandon Phillips (.275, 18hr, 59rbi, 100r, 16 sb, .332 obp, .430 slg, .762 ops) Offensively, Phillips had a down year in 2010.  Then again, his numbers always piss me off.  16 steals?  That’s an atrocity for a man with his speed.  .332 obp?  Come on.  That’s what you get with Phillips.  He plays when he wants to play and he always tries to be the hero.  But in the end, he is right in the middle of big games when you need something.  And every contender has to have an asshole.  He’s that.  In a good way.  Highest paid position player at 11.5M/per.  You should know this.

Paul Janish (.260, 5hr, 25rbi, .338 obp, .385 slg, .723 ops) I will take these numbers from Janish every year until the end of time.  He’s one of those old-timey 1980 shortstops that flashes that sweet leather but doesn’t light up a baseball card.  Whatever.  Not everyone is Jeter. Well, young Jeter. Keep it coming Janish.  (HEY Phillips – Janish gets on base more than you.  Thought you should know.)

Scott Rolen (.285, 20 hr, 83 rbi, .358 obp, .497 slg, .855 ops) Rolen was fantastic last year and is central to the Reds shift to an intelligent, consistent ball club.  Unfortunately, Rolen died in mid-August and his corpse played the remainder of the season.  And his corpse stinks.  Now he’s a zombie.  Now I like zombies, but they make me nervous in the hot corner.  We’ll see.  Dusty is going to have to handle with care and feed him human flesh as needed.

Jonny Gomes (.267, 20hr, 51 rbi, 85K, .338 obp, .541 slg, .879 ops) I guess every MLB team has to have that “wacky” guy that plays by his own rules.  Fine Jonny, you get the trophy.  That Mohawk is wild.  I was thinking that he had a career year in 2010 but his numbers are fairly stable.  He hits .260.  He hits 20 bombs.  And he will strike out 130 times.  And they come in bunches.  I guess that’s ok but when you watch him patrol left field it looks like he is wearing roller skates.  I should say, he has walked 15 times already this season – only 39 total last year.  Still, he’s expendable.

Drew Stubbs (.255, 22hr, 77 rbi, 30 sb, 168K, .329 obp, .444 slg, .773 ops) This guy was built in a Texas baseball lab.  6’ 4”, 200.  Perfect stance.  Perfect mechanics.  He’s a cyborg.  He’s also a strikeout machine, fanning 168 times.  That’s not what you want from you leadoff guy.  Or any guy, Adam Dunn.  And man does he seem hesitant on the base paths for a guy with Terminator 2 speed.   Almost terrified.  But for a player who hit in the 1 and 8 spot, his numbers are legit.  And he was superb in CF, never making a SportCenter play because he was settled under the ball when others would be diving.   I hate having a guy that Ks so much at the leadoff but the Reds have no better options.  Besides, the Reds haven’t had a real leadoff guy in years so who are we to get snooty?

Jay Bruce (.281, 25 hr, 70 rbi, 136 k, .353 obp, .493 slg .846 ops) He’s what you want from a right fielder.  Power.  Big arm.  And the Reds have paid him hefty (in Cincy money) to lock that position down.  And he comes to play.  I get upset because his swing is loopy and has some serious holes.  He looks overmatched sometimes.  A good pitcher throws him curve balls in, on the dirt, and he swings through them.  I don’t trust him in a big situation.  And for what the Reds are paying him, that doesn’t add up.

Ryan Hannigan/Ramon Hernandez (.300, 12 hr, 88 rbi – COMBINED STATS) This is how you employ a catching tandem.   If you don’t have Johnny Bench, you get a veteran South American who speaks Spanish that can handle the Cuetos/Volquezs/Chapmans (VERY underrated tactical move) and a scrapper that plays smart ball.  These guys hit in the clutch and manage the game.  I LOVE this crew.  They don’t get enough credit.

Bench

·         Chris Heisey – if Gomes goes on one of his funks, and we will, Heisey could be the starting LF by the break.  In fact, that would be a good thing.  Heisey is good.  And a Heisey/Stubbs/Bruce OF is the best defensively in baseball.

·         Miguel Cairo – This has to be a fake name.  I bet he always has trouble coming through customs.   1985 Mel Gibson slits this guy’s throat.  Oh, and he is a great backup to zombie Rolen.

·         Juan Francisco – He’s the free swinging youngster that is green but can hit the pill a long way, but makes mistakes and Ks a bunch I’m fine with that.

·         Edgar Renteria – why not.  MVP of a world series, on the cheap. 

Pitching

Edison Volquez (4-3, WHIP 1.50, ERA 4.31) Just not a fan.  If this is the Reds ace, then October is going to be a problem.  Have you looked at this man?  Imagine a professional like Greg Maddux, slopping out to the field with a uniform too big, a VW chain hanging off his neck, woman hair, and a ball cap that rests on said hair by a miracle of science.  Maddux would KILL HIMSLELF before appearing in public in such a fashion.  That’s your boy.  Volquez is a nightmare.  All the man cares about is strike outs.  He nibbles, and nibbles, and puts the Reds in early holes.  I know his stuff is filthy but I don’t believe in his soul.  Unless this man has a complete adjustment (really, impossible), he will never be a number 1.

Bronson Arroyo (17-10, WHIP 1.15, 3.80) Get out of the way, I am about to gush.  Bronson Arroyo has been the singular professional of this organization since 2006.  72-60.   Not the sexiest record but the man comes to pitch every start, every AB.  He is at his best on the stage.  He’s the guy you want pitching  when the Reds have lost 4 in a row.  He will always deliver a skilled show.   Just an athletic man that makes up for not having a thunderbolt arm with guile and guts and intelligence.  The fact that the Reds got him for Wily Mo Pena makes that Volquez/Hamilton trade somewhat less nauseating.

Travis Wood (L) (5-4, WHIP 1.08, ERA 3.51) When I see Wood as the starter, I assume a victory.  He doesn’t deserve all of that, but I like the Reds chances when he is on the bump.  He gives us that.  Or at least he gives me that.  Wood throws strikes and he doesn’t screw around.  Attack the strike zone and if they hit you, so be it.  And he’s the first quality lefty the Reds have had since Tom Browning.  Look it up.

Johnny Cueto (12-7, WHIP 1.28, ERA 3.64) Oh, awesome, another puffy Dominican.  This always works out.  He can be great at times.  But he gets flustered, and will crumble on the mound.   It’s all about the strike zone with him.  If he can place on the edges, he can pitch a gem.  If teams are patient, trouble.

Homer Bailey (4-3, WHIP 1.37, ERA 4.46) He could be the key to the season.  He’s the only angular Reds arm that could become a bona fide power pitcher.  He throws downhill and is a guy you could see ripping of 7 2/3 innings in October. 

Mike Leake (8-4, WHIP 1.50, ERA 4.23) The darling of 2010.  He looks 14, he went to college, and he can swing the bat.  That’s a good recipe in Cincinnati.  He can’t throw over 90 but he understands the nuances of changing speeds and location.  However, if he is not getting the calls on the black, he does not have an “out” pitch and is subject to beatings. 

Bullpen

·         Same LeCure – He’ll probably be back in Louisville when Cueto/Bailey return but he has been the 2^nd best starter in 2011.  This is a good problem – no one has stockpiled arms on the sneak like the Reds since David Koresh (borrowed joke).   I feel good when LeCure starts and he might be in AAA by May.  This is good.

·         Bill Bray (L) – His goatee makes him look like his evil twin in a bad soap opera.  Bray looks terrible in his uniform – dump and doughy city.  But his herky jerky motion plays well in relief efforts.  It looks like Dusty trusts him.

·         Aroldis Chapman (L) – I kind of like the Missile in the pen.  That means you can see him 4 times a week.  I watch him with matching levels of awe and fear.  His fastball is dead straight and he doesn’t seem to handle adversity.  But then he can throw 105 and snap an evil slider.  So, hang on. 

·         Francisco Cordero – I guess I am over the Coco hate. I have zero comfort-ability with him in a 1-run game and have grown to live with this taint.  We will remember the 6 games he blows and forget the 40 he saves.  And that’s how it is when you are a closer. 

·         Matt Maloney (L) – another guy that can make a spot start and you feel like the Reds could win.  Love me some depth!

·         Nick Masset – It can’t help a shaky pitcher when 3 of your teams first four losses are on you.   Apparently Masset has great “stuff”.  That’s not getting us those losses reversed.  If he can’t get it together the fact that the Reds let Sir Arthur Rhodes go will be a serious organizational blunder.

·         Logan Ondrusek – Every bullpen has to have either a big fat guy or a large physical oddity.  Enter LG.  He’s 6’ 8”, ugly, awkward.  Perfect.  And he can dial it up too.

·         Jordan Smith – Another Reds arm that has some action.  Remember the Weathers/Danny Herera years?  A bunch of soft-tossers “pitching to contact”?  Those years are ove

r.

Coaching

So I read Moneyball this offseason.  It’s all about how statistics and trends are proving that the industry standard methods of operating a baseball team are antiquated and incorrect.  Batting average and RBI are no longer the gold standard in statistics.  On-base percentage and slugging pct reign superior.  Wins for pitchers?  Grow up.  You need to know what their WHIP is.

That brings us to Dusty.  Opening day 2011.  The Brew Crew puts up 3 in the first inning.  Volquez was super shaky.  It was apparent that the Reds would need to score a high number of runs to win.  So in the bottom of the first, Drew Stubbs leads off with a double.  Brandon Phillips steps to the plate.  And Dusty has him bunt so Stubbs can advance to third. 

This is a tactically terrible decision.  Each team gets 27 outs.  There is no clock in baseball, making these opportunities the only commodity in baseball.  And having Phillips bunt is sacrificing a precious resource.  And for what?  Stubbs is already in scoring position!  Phillips is one of your best hitters!  And it is the first damn inning!  Why detonate a rally?  Why give a pitcher an out?

And that is the Duster.  He’s old school.  He manages by “the book”, by a hunch, and by seniority.  That means he will always choose a lefty v righty, regardless of statistics.  He will always wait to pitch the setup man until the 8^th, and the closer will never see the bump until the 9^th.  But then there is the rub.  I have NEVER seen the Cincinnati Reds play this hard, this clean, and this intelligent since 1990.  So something works.  So I guess can live with the stupid, terrible bunts.

Overview

The Reds are in good hands.  The Reds have finally shaken off the bad breath of Marge Schott and Jim Bowden.  The Reds have prospects.  The Reds develop within.  The Reds players that come up through the system play the game right.  These axioms were not true a few years ago.  The Castellinis want to win, and the GM Walt Jockety has the patience and guile to make it work.  And the resolve to not make the trigger move.   The Reds did NOT sign a hot free agent this winter.   That was intelligent. 

The offense hinges on two players:  Bruce and Stubbs.  All other players will either maintain (Votto, Phillips) or take expected declines (Rolen, Hernandez).  Bruce and Stubbs are the guys that need to raise.  Stubbs needs to be patient, get on base, and attack the pillows (2 of 3 are happening).  Bruce needs to become viable in big boy ABs.  Work in progress.

The Reds have a pitching staff that is going to force management to make hard decisions.  If LeCure is still humming, is he sent down when Cueto returns?   How much rope do we give Volquez?  Cueto?  Hell, nobody is safe.  Every pitcher is expendable.  There is a competitive zest with this staff that belies their pedigree.  The Reds will win on their depth and flexibility.

Outlook

Somehow, track and field analogies fit perfect for baseball.  The Reds are built for the marathon, not the sprint.  The Reds have 7 viable starters, but no hammer.  Is there a Red pitcher that can throw a big-boy playoff game?  Are the Reds ready for big-boy baseball?

I think the Reds win another weak division, with 2 more wins.  93-69. And this time the Reds make it to the NLCS before falling to the wretched Phillies. 

Let’s go Reds.  We’ve been patient.  Win.