Red Hot Reds Retraction

On April 18, 2010 after being swept by the putrid Pittsburgh Pirates (alliteration alert!) and falling to 5-8 I decided that the Reds season was over. Maybe a little premature. But at the time, the season had that all too familiar stink of a 70-win turd sandwhich. But here we are. 48-37, first place in the NL Central by 2 games. The Reds are in the battle and should be there all year. The Reds done rose up. The least I could do is examine how we got here.

(And for the record, the best time to write a mid-season analysis of the Reds is following a loss. It provides the right balance of pessimism and unfounded crazy prognostications. Let’s do this.)

Top 6 Reasons the Reds are in First

1. Starting Pitching Depth

The ERA numbers are not great, and the Reds don’t have a hammer like Carpenter or Halladay, but they are a diverse group that eats innings and keeps the Reds in games. Arroyo, who can’t top 93 MPH on the radar gun, has turned himself into a staff ace with pure guile and an assortment of breaking stuff and arm angles. He will still puke up a 4-run inning, but he always comes up big when the Reds are on a losing streak and fields his position with grace. Cueto is inefficient and maddening, but always seems to wiggle out of trouble and get through 6 innings. Leake was the darling, though is fading a bit as his rookie arm tires and the NL teams figure him out. Harang is fat and no longer a #1 but he can still eat innings and will get stronger as the season rolls on. And then you have a mixed bag of rookie Travis Wood, fresh off surgery/suspension Volquez, the curious Homer Bailey and Chapman, The Cuban Missile. Options are a good thing. The Reds have even been rumored to be in the mix for Cliff Lee (he pitched 9 shutout innings against the Reds in the forgettable Seattle series). The Reds had never had this much pitching. Giggle.

2. Defense

After a decade of watching Griffey’s corpse and Adam Dunn shuffle after baseballs, I forgot you could win games with defense. The Reds have past, present and future gold gloves all over the field. And when Arroyo is pitching, the Reds have the best defensive infield in the NL. You can attribute close to 10 wins that were saved by the Reds turning double plays in crucial situations. And while baseball is an individual game, the defense is making the Reds a team. With the level of play so high, guys can’t pout after poor ABs – they get their heads straight and strap their gloves on. And the pitchers don’t have to be perfect. They know they have 8 behind them ready to track down the seed.

3. Clutch Hitting

How many runners were left to expire on base this last decade? How many times did the Reds get men into scoring position, only to string strikeouts together to end the inning? Painful memories. This year, the Reds lead the majors in batting (.288 AVG) with runners in scoring position. The Reds are just as good with two outs. These are the ABs that win ball games. Unless you are the Pirates, every team gets around 8-9 hits a game. So it’s not really how many hits you get, it’s when you get them. And the Reds are delivering when it counts.

4. NL Central

This division sucks. The Astros and Pirates are two of the worst teams in all of baseball (the Pirates might be the worst). The Cubs are a train wreck, and may start selling off all their guys. The Brewers are not as dramatic as the Cubs, but their fire sale is not far behind. 61 games against those teams. That leaves a St. Louis team that is a little worn down and not as good as they have been in years past. Only one team to beat in a 6-team division. I like those odds.

5. Baseball IQ

I am not sure how a baseball team gets smarter, but the 2010 Reds look like Mensa members compared to past years. It could be the right mix of savvy veterans (Rhodes, Cordero, Arroyo, Harang, Rolen, Cabrerra) and receptive youth. Maybe it’s coaching. Maybe it’s my Reds reports. Whatever it is, the Reds have intelligent Abs, seem to understand situational hitting (getting bunts down, sacrifice flies) and don’t get picked off on the base paths. On defense, the Reds talk to each other, throw to the right bags and play tight baseball.

6. Star Power

The Reds are enjoying breakout/career years from key players. Here are the studs:

Scott Rolen, 3B

I hated the Reds when they signed Rolen. I thought it was an empty move in a lost season (2009) and we would be paying an old man to sit of the disabled list for the remainder of his career. This is why I am not a GM. Rolen has brought a mature presence to the clubhouse, a big time right handed bat, and flawless play at 3^rd. Most importantly, he ended the Encarnacion nightmare. Rolen is a beast. And it’s a shame we are in the steroid era because now any time a 35+ year old does ANYTHING I assume they are getting daily injections from Jose Canseco.

Brandon Phillips, 2B

This guy has been shifted around the batting order (4^th, 2^nd, 3^rd, 1^st) and he just keeps hitting. For me, he’s become the player I always wanted him to be. He seems to have cut down on his monster cartoon hacks (where he spins around like a top) and is now a .300 hitter that sprays doubles around the field while annoying pitchers on the base paths. His defense is simply outstanding. Crazy range with a shortstop’s arm. And I like that he is a hot dog. You got to have a dusting of asshole in your clubhouse soufflé.

Arthure Rhodes, RP

“Arthur Rhodes does what Arthur Rhodes does” – Marty Brenneman, 2010. And that is put up zeros. The guy, at age 40, tied a major-league record with 33 straight appearances without giving up a run. That is phenomenal. Cordero gets the save stats, but Sir Arthur has rescued the Reds collective butts all year.

Joey Votto, 1B

He’s become the team star, and is in the top-5 in all the sexy offensive categories. You can even say “Votto” and “triple crown” in the same sentence and not sound ridiculous. He has a great eye, has power to all fields and is the fearsome presence a team needs in their 3-hole batter. His hitting is so good you forget that his defense is stellar as well. He was born to play first base. Now let’s just hope that his anxiety medicine keeps working and he stops getting thrown out of games in the first inning.

Jay Bruce, RF

Bruce has improved himself by degrees at the plate. Lefties used to dust off the Adam Dunn playbook and kill him with looping breaking balls outside of the strike zone. Bruce doesn’t swing at that crap anymore. He picks his spots, will flick the ball to left field and has the pop to barrel a mistake when they come. He can get blown away with a decent fastball, but his metamorphous is still impressive. Bruce also boasts deceptive speed, has great range for a right fielder and has a cannon arm.

Playoffs?

With this division and the Reds depth at pitching, it hard to see the Reds completely falling off the cliff. 92 wins gets you the NL Central. That has the Reds going 44-33 the rest of the way out. How do they do that? These could help:

1. Effectively manage and juggle the current rotation and the capable replacements. This is not exactly Dusty’s strong suit, and there are a lot of variables in this equation:

· Mike Leake’s rookie season. He has been brilliant, but has never pitched more that 150 innings in a year. When do you shut him down? Do you move him to the bullpen?

· Edison Volquez coming off of Tommy John. Is he ready? What will he give you?

· Travis Wood’s rookie season. Same rules as Leake.

· Aroldis Chapman. Does he have the control to actually start a major league game? Does he help the bullpen? Do you even bring him up?

· Aaron Harang’s big, fat contract. If he pitches well, can you deal him? Dare you deal him?

· Clifford Lee. Is this signing a pipe dream?

2. Keep Scott Rolen healthy

3. Save Arthur Rhodes’ arm

4. Teach Drew Stubbs to bunt

5. Make sure Votto takes his meds

6. Get Hannigan healthy so we don’t have to see Corky Miller in the lineup

So here we are. The Reds are in first place on the eve of the All-Star break. St. Louis looks shaky. Meaningful baseball is in play for Autumn. I haven’t even thought about the football season yet. I don’t turn Reds’ games off when they are down a couple runs. I am able to watch and enjoy “Baseball Tonight”. There are road games in August/September that I am planning trips for. I am peeking at other scores, and sizing up the teams in the NL. This is fun.

I would ask the Reds forgiveness for my early season dismissal, but I have pumped considerable cash into their crappy ballpark and have endured a decade of failures and foolishness. So let’s call it even. Just get us to October, Reds.