Bowie 2009 Reds Scouting Report

Everyone likes to look back in time and say “I called that”. Especially if the “call” was a long shot, unexpected or seemingly crazy. That’s a big reason why I have read no less than 10 baseball previews claiming that the 2009 Cincinnati Reds could be “This year’s Tampa Bay Rays”. Proceed with caution. If you look hard enough, you could probably find a novel’s worth of articles on 10 other “sleeper” teams. Regardless, there is a mild consensus that the Reds have the talent and appropriate mix to be a factor. Or as Bobby Knight once said, the Reds “are in position to be in position”. Let’s get in on.

Opening Day batting order

1. Jerry Hairston Jr. lf
2. Darnell McDonald cf*
3. Joey Votto 1b
4. Brandon Phillips 2b
5. Jay Bruce rf
6. Edwin Encarnacion 3b
7. Ramon Hernandez c
8. Alex Gonzalez ss
9. Aaron Harang p

*Projected starter Wily Taveras has the flu, so McDonald gets the start. McDonald could be sitting on my sofa right now and I would have no idea who he is.

Pitching (2008 statistics in parenthesis)

Aaron Harang (6-17, 4.78 ERA, 184.1 IP, 153 SO) – It’s a bit sobering when you step back and see that the Reds opening day starter lost 17 games the previous season. I guess the electronic pitching machine was not available. All will be forgotten if Harang returns to his 2006/07 form, when he won 16 games in back-to-back seasons. At least the man came to camp in shape this year (he’s dropped at least 40 lbs) and looks like an athlete.

Edinson Volquez (17-6, 3.21 ERA, 196.0 IP, 206 SO) – We should all chip in and send a gift basket to the Netherlands for knocking out the DR in the World Baseball Classic. Otherwise, Volquez would have racked up more full speed starts and set himself up for a disastrous ’09. I would take a repeat of last year right now. I expect a regression. He tired last year, with a 4.60 ERA after the break. He tries to strike everybody out, so he racks up the pitch count. I hope Dusty doesn’t burn his arm.

Bronson Arroyo (15-11, 4.77 ERA, 200 IP, 163 SO) – Arroyo kind of looks like one of those long-necked, female equestrian riders. Which is ironic, because he is in fact the horse. Arroyo has racked up over 200 innings in each of the last 4 seasons. That’s strong. What’s not strong is that he might start the season on the DL because of Carpal Tunnel from writing song lyrics. And the songs all suck. Assuming he shakes this off, he’ll throw another 200 and win about 12 games. I also just found out he was born on the exact same day as a girl I dated years ago. And he was born in Key West. I have no idea what to do with this information.

Johnny Cueto (9-14, 4.81 ERA, 174 IP, 158 SO) – He was supposed to be the rookie star, after destroying Arizona in his first start (7 IP, 1 ER, 10 SO). But he returned to earth and Volquez soared. Regardless, Cueto got invaluable experience last year and didn’t tax his arm with a reasonable 174 innings. I think he out-pitches Volquez this year.

Micah Owings (6-9, 5.93 ERA, 104.2 IP, 87 SO) – He’s what we got for Adam Dunn. I like him already. His 2008 record is a bit deceiving – we finished 0-7 after his shoulder started bothering. His shoulder has been repaired and he has been nasty in Spring (3-1, 1.52 ERA, 23.2 IP, 24 SO). The Reds considered converting him to the outfield, because he has a monster bat (.319 career BA). Some think he might have the most power on the team and could be the DH when the Reds are in interleague play. I am more excited to see him than anybody.

Bullpen

Francisco Cordero had a terrible 2008 season. He blew some critical games when the direction of the season was still in doubt. The excuses ranged from an arm injury to “he didn’t have enough chances”. Whatever. He’s sucking up almost 10% of the Reds team salary so if doesn’t have a monster year, I might have to complain loudly and write him a stern letter. Jared Burton is a stud righty and a solid 8th inning guy. He’s the next closer, if the Reds can hang on to him. David Weathers is the crafty veteran, and little Danny Herrera (5’ 6”) is the left-hand specialist.


Outfield

Yes friends, the Griffey-Dunn era has ended. Not that these lovelies have left our lives. I got to watch Kenny’s fat butt waddle around in a celebrity golf tournament a few weeks ago and caught the Donkey striking out 3 times (with men on) in the deciding game of the WBC. Giggle. We’ll try to get on with out them. This year’s unit promises less power and fewer balls that roll through the gaps to the wall. Youth, speed and defense. Why not?


Jerry Hairston Jr. (.326 BA, .384 OBP, 15 SB) – Every season, the Reds seems to have one journeyman have a career year. Enter Hairston. He was the catalyst in 2008 – the Reds were 27-18 in the games he started and was a lightning rod at the top of the order before he went out with an injury July 13. He’s 32, and has a career BA of .260. Hope for the best but don’t count on it. He’ll platoon with Chris Dickerson. He can also fill in at SS and 2B.

Chris Dickerson (.304 BA, 6HR, 15 RBI, 5 SB, 104 AB) – He’s young, big and fast. But what can you expect from a guy with 104 career ABs? His average was good in spring (.323), but he struck out at an alarming rate (once every 3 ABs). He’ll start against righties. And for you hippies, he manages a website dedicated to living “green”.

Wily Taveras (.251 BA, .308 OBP, 68 SB, 79 SO) – He’s the Reds new leadoff guy who has trouble getting on base. That’s like having a pitcher who has trouble throwing a ball. He still led the majors, by a considerable margin, in stolen bases despite his poor plate performance. The guy could steal 100 bases if he mixed in some draG bunts and pushed his .OBP to .350. I’m not expecting much. Look for Hairston to get some time out there and a mid-season call up of Drew Stubbs.

Jay Bruce (.254 BA, .314 OBP, 21 HR, 52 RBI) – Solid rookie campaign. He seemed to catch the “entitlement” rash from Griffey and Dunn. There were times Bruce did not hustle and seemed to go through the motions - unacceptable for a rookie trying to make it in the bigs. I hope he got a salve for that and applied liberally.

Infield

Edwin Encarnacion (.251 BA, .340 OBP, 26 HR, 68 RBI) – The man just won’t let me love him. And I want to. He can hit in the clutch. He can hit for power. He can rake left-handed pitching. He can rack up the web gems when he’s concentrating. I’ve seen it! He can also lose games by himself with critical (often ghastly) errors and failing at the plate with runners in scoring position. I have never seen a man pop-out on the infield so many times. Impressive, if it wasn’t terrible. I’m giving him one more year. I want 90 RBI and less than 15 errors. Bring the pain, EE.

Alex Gonzalez (2007 stats - .272 BA, .325 OBP, 16 HR, 55 RBI) – It’s been a long time since we’ve seen him. I hope he doesn’t resurrect his career BA of .248. His return is supposed in instantly bolster the defense. However, I never remember him making any “wow” plays back in ’07. I am convinced that certain players get tagged with a reputation and no amount of poor/superior play will change that. So there.

Brandon Phillips (.261 BA, .312 OBP, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 23 SB) – I like Phillips. He plays with a cocky assuredness and passion. Though I fear that 30/30 season was the worst thing that could happen to him. I don’t mind an aggressive, free-swinger. But BP hacks from the heels. There is no reason he should not bat .290 with 15 HR and 50 SB. But he tasted 30 bombs and he wants that number. Batting cleanup won’t help.

Joey Votto (.297 BA, .368 OBP, 24 HR, 84 RBI, .506 SLG) – Just a monster rookie season, Votto emerged as the best hitter on the team. And he may be the star. Thank you, Canada. Votto and Bruce have a friendly, competitive rivalry brewing and should push each other into the next decade. You know, until the point when the Reds can’t afford them anymore. (sobbing quietly)

Ramon Hernandez (.257 BA, .308 OBP, 15 HR, 65 RBI) – The Reds swapped Ryan Freel to the Orioles for Hernandez. (yayy Jockety!) He’s a steady catcher, with a career .263 BA. He’s durable, averaging over 125 games a season behind the dish. He got the “lazy” tag, towards the end of his tenure in Baltimore. Hopefully the move to Cincy will inspire him. Or maybe his 7.5M salary.

Ryan Hanigan (.271 BA, .367 OBP, 2 HR, 9 RBI) – Not bad numbers for a guy who is supposed to be a defensive specialist. Defense is what you want from your backup catcher. And that is what he is.

Bench

Paul Janish is a nifty fielder with a soft bat. Darnell McDonald and Laynce Nix are just names on the roster. I am sure they are swell humans.


Outlook

The defense should be better by degrees. No more tree stumps playing in the corners. Votto and Phillips have a year together so the right side of the diamond should be sealed up. Maybe the veteran Gonzalez will have a calming effect on Edwin and cure him of his erratic play. Or maybe EE will fling a ball into the stands and kill a woman eating nachos. It’s a toss-up.

The Reds scored 3 or fewer runs 52 times last season (5-47) and were 12th in the NL in runs scored (704). Now subtract 103 runs, 53 HRs and 127 RBI (totals of Griffey and Dunn). The Reds somehow have to fill the production void left by Griffunn, and add to the total. That’s a tall task, with question marks up and down the order.

In order to complete the 25-man roster, the Reds had to option Homer Bailey, Bill Bray and Jonny Gomes to Louisville. Those 3 guys could make other teams. That’s a good thing. Bailey could be on the bump (possibly in long relief) by May, and maybe sooner if Arroyo can’t go. Gomes is not happy about his re-assignment. He’s one of those guys that just needs a shot. I hope the Reds don’t lose him.

The Reds have one of the best starting 5 in all of baseball. Their performance should keep the club in striking distance all year. The doubts are up the middle – if the Reds get career years from Taveras (CF), Gonzalez (SS) and Hernandez (C), lookout.


Prediction

Edwin breaks out (in Bower fantasy land). Votto becomes a star (in Cincy at least). Harang, Cueto, Bailey and Owings carry the staff. Cordero flames out and goes on the DL; replaced by Burton. Taveras tanks. Hairston gets hurt early, never a factor. Bruce struggles. Phillips frustrates and duplicates last year. End result?

84-78, 3rd place NL Central

The Reds will be in the wild card conversation to the end. Just not enough. Too many people have them as their dark horse. I don't like that one bit. At least they are in position to be in position.