The Costanza Contenders

I am a Reds fan. I watch a lot of bad baseball. I would consider myself an expert on loser ball and what it takes to be a perennial non-factor. The Reds are a model for how to become irrelevant by the All-Star break.

So when picking the favorites for the 2008 World Series, it is logical to assume that the teams left standing will be the ones that do everything the Reds don’t. Do you remember the Seinfeld episode in which George Costanza started to succeed by doing the opposite of every natural impulse he had? This strategy harvested women, respect and a job with the New York Yankees. I have decided to apply this tactic.

If you want to create a good baseball team, examine a lousy one (i.e. the Reds) and do the exact opposite of everything they do. Every weakness the Reds have (and there are many) are core strengths of the contenders. Here are those weaknesses:

- Inconsistent starting pitching
- Poor production from the power slots (3-4-5 hitters in the batting order)
- Inability to hit in the clutch
- Poor base running
- Weak bench
- Lousy defense

Each of the above areas can be represented statistically by the following:

- Quality starts (starting pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs)
- Slugging percentage of 3-4-5 hitters
- Team batting average with runners in scoring position
- Stolen base percentage
- OPS (slugging + on base percentage) of pinch hitters
- Team fielding percentage

After crunching the numbers, I have compiled 5 teams which by their virtue of being the antithesis of terrible are my picks for the 2008 World Series.

1. Chicago White Sox (49-37, 1st place in AL Central)
- Highest Costanza rating - quality starts (1st), stolen base % (T-7th), scoring position avg. (3rd), pinch-hitting OPS (1st), fielding pct. (3rd)

The second team in the second city. If anything, the White Sox can always rally behind the fact that they are the “other” team in their own city. They can also take solace in not having a bandwagon full of poser fans like a certain team a few train stops north. That’s got to be worth some baseball karma. Just never underestimate a team that has a chip on their shoulder from not getting their due.

Chicago is a veteran team that is solid up and down the lineup. What they lack in sex appeal they make up for in grit. They have the highest run differential in the AL (+82), which is the stat du jour in regards to a barometer of success. When guys like Paul Konerko (284 career HRs) and Nick Swisher (averaged 28.5 HRs and 98.5 RBI in 2006-2007) are backups, you got a pretty good squad.

And I do not know about you but I miss me some Ozzie Guillen. It’s been 3 years since the microphones we’re angled towards his flapping lips in late October. Let’s do this.


2. Philadelphia Phillies (48-39, 1st place in NL East)
- Quality starts (T-7th), stolen base % (T-1st), scoring position avg. (10th), pinch-hitting OPS (5th), fielding pct. (T-5th)

The Phillies have a mini-murderers row with Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell all taking swats in the top-half of their batting order. Just when a pitcher thinks he got through the worst of it, he looks up and sees Rollins in the on deck circle. Again. They can pressure and demoralize a staff ace.

The Phils staff is not going to scare anybody but they do have a bonafide ace in Cole Hamels. They also have the best 1-2 reliever punch in the bigs courtesy the resurrection of Brad Lidge and Flash Tom Gordon – one of the few career setup men. Philly will not have to worry about catching the Mets this year and should cruise into the playoffs where they hope to eradicate their early exit in 2007.


3. Boston Red Sox (52-37, 2nd place in AL East)
- Quality starts (T-5th), stolen base % (2nd), scoring position avg. (11th), pinch-hitting OPS (8th), fielding pct. (T-4th)

If the Red Sox were not annoying enough with their ability to sign any free agent they want on the planet, they also have a strong farm system that has produced starters Jacob Ellsbury, Justin Pedroia and Justin Masterson. Good times.

The Sox shrugged off injuries to Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz and Curt Schilling and have produced another winning campaign. And as much as I loathe their oil tycoon payroll and incessant fans, I respect the way the Sox play ball. They play smart, hard and fast. Every game, every inning, every pitch. Boston does the little things. If a man gets to third with less than two outs, he scores 9 out of 10 times. They deserve to win and they do it often.

And they won’t be afraid to dip into their vat of money as the trade deadline approaches.

4. Minnesota Twins (48-38, 2nd place in AL Central)
- Quality starts (T-5th), stolen base % (T-11th), scoring position avg. (1st), pinch-hitting OPS (4th), fielding pct. (T-6th)

I do not know anything about the Twins. Neither does anybody else unless they live next a Great Lake. $20 for anyone that can name their manager (hint: combine the words “garden” and “hire”). Yet this man has guided the Twinkies to 4 division titles since 2002. So take that.

The Twins have stayed consistent all these years with pitching defense and timely hitting. Their league-leading .315 BA with runners in scoring position is almost 30 points higher than the next team. They even have a little star power with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. So at least remember those names for the time being. You can study their roster again in October.

5. Chicago Cubs
- Quality starts (T-8th), stolen base % (T-10th), scoring position avg. (2nd), pinch-hitting OPS (24th), fielding pct. (T-6th)

Oh, so THIS is the year for the Cubs. I thought it was all those other times.

The Cubs actually tied the Cardinals, in regards to their Costanza rating. I was swayed by their sexy +96 run differential. The Cubs just killed teams in April and May and have been on virtual cruise control since. Their lineup gets scary again when Soriano comes back off the DL.

But the Cubs have holes. They have a washed up Jim Edmonds playing center field. And while they can roll out a Carlos Zambrano start with a Kerry Wood close every four games in the playoffs, the rotation takes a quick dip. Warning to Cubs fans: do not name your first child “Dempster”. I know Ryan Dempster is having a great season (9-3, 3.24 ERA, 93 Ks) but the end is near. Those numbers are fraudulent. Prepare yourself.


SLEEPERS:

St. Louis Cardinals – I would have put them in the Cubs 5th spot if their staff ace was not Kyle Lohse. Gross.

Oakland Athletics – Good young pitching staff (Lowest team ERA in MLB) and Billy Beane has enough pieces in the farm system to make a deal come the deadline.


So there you have it. Sorry Tampa Bay, the Costanza numbers don’t lie. Just take comfort that you are not the team this theory was built on.